Bills vs Texans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Week 12 Thursday Night Football

The Buffalo Bills will visit the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium for what promises to be a pivotal AFC showdown on Thursday Night Football in Week 12. Both teams enter the contest riding impressive streaks—with the Bills surging offensively and the Texans resilient despite injury setbacks. Here’s a professional, sectioned breakdown previewing the matchup, examining odds, key storylines, statistical profiles, and expert predictions for this primetime NFL clash.

Game Overview

The Week 12 edition of Thursday Night Football features two playoff-hopeful franchises: Buffalo, seeking to reinforce its status among the AFC elite, and Houston, still fighting for postseason relevance despite quarterback injuries. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, with the Prime Video broadcast highlighting an intriguing battle between the Bills’ explosive attack and the Texans’ stingy defense.

• Bills record: 7-3 (2nd in AFC East)

• Texans record: 5-5 (3rd in AFC South)

• Odds: Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 43.5

Recent Form & Trends

Both teams have hit their stride recently:

• Buffalo has won three of its last four outings, capped by a 44-32 shootout win over Tampa Bay in Week 11. Josh Allen accounted for six total touchdowns, showcasing his dual-threat dominance.

• Houston has won back-to-back games and three of their last four, including a gritty 16-13 victory over Tennessee in Week 11 with backup Davis Mills under center. The Texans have quietly excelled at home, winning five straight in Houston versus Buffalo and outgaining the Bills by 149 yards in last year’s matchup.

Key Injuries & Player News

The quarterback situation for Houston remains the top storyline:

• C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol and did not practice Monday, making Davis Mills the likely starter once again. Mills is coming off a solid game against Tennessee but will be challenged by Buffalo’s athletic defense.

• Buffalo’s Josh Allen is healthy and enters the contest leading the league in combined passing and rushing touchdowns, maintaining MVP-caliber form.

Other impact players:

• James Cook (Bills RB): Poised for a third consecutive 1,000-yard season, with 968 rushing yards and seven touchdowns through 10 games.

• Nico Collins (Texans WR): Key target for Mills, with 642 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

WHO WILL WIN?

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  BUFFALO BILLS
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  HOUSTON TEXANS

Buffalo Bills Offense

• Allen has completed 69.6% of passes for 2,456 yards and 18 TDs (plus seven interceptions), with an additional 351 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs.

• The Bills’ playmaking duo of Allen and Cook offers a dynamic threat against any defense and powered the recent rout of Tampa Bay.

Houston Texans Defense

• Houston allows a league-best 16.3 points per game and just 258.1 yards on average, ranking top three in several defensive categories, including points allowed and third-down conversion percentage.

• The Texans shut down well-regarded offenses this year, including limiting the Rams to 14 and Buccaneers to 20 points.

Texans Offense vs. Bills Defense

Houston’s offense faces challenges:

• Texans rank 26th in third-down conversions and 31st in red-zone efficiency, indicating trouble sustaining drives and finishing them.

• Buffalo’s defense, despite conceding 62 points combined over the last two games, remains potent, especially against lower-ranked offenses—they held the Jets, Saints, and Panthers to a combined 38 points in those outings.

Odds, Spread, and Betting Analysis

Current lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and Bet365:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Over/Under
Buffalo Bills	-5.5 (-110)	-192	43.5
Houston Texans	+5.5 (-110)	+160	43.5

• Early expert consensus leans toward Houston covering the spread as a home underdog in a low-scoring game, citing their defensive edge and Buffalo’s tendency to play down on the road.

• The under (43.5) is favored due to Houston’s defensive stats and the Texans’ offensive limitations, along with Buffalo's ability to clamp down on weaker opponents.

Matchup Storylines & Predictions

Why Buffalo Can Win

• Allen’s remarkable consistency makes the Bills offensive threat hard to contain. Allen is the league’s reigning MVP and the only player in NFL history with multiple games of three passing and rushing touchdowns, justifying Buffalo’s favorite status.

• Cook’s ground game and Dawson Knox’s red zone prowess add to the multi-layered attack.

• Houston’s red-zone issues could set up Buffalo’s defense for a bounce-back performance after rough recent outings.

Why Houston Can Win

• Mills must play efficiently and avoid turnovers. In his four starts, he’s completed 60% of passes with a 3-to-1 TD-INT ratio, plus moderate ground production.

• Nico Collins and running back Dameon Pierce offer big-play appeal, but Houston's real edge remains its elite defense and home field advantage.

• Playing on a short week at home, with Buffalo traveling, has often produced upset results late in the season.

Bold Predictions

• Josh Allen continues MVP pace: Projected for three touchdowns and over 300 passing yards, even against Houston’s top-ranked defense.

• Davis Mills struggles against Bills defense: Predicted to finish with fewer than 250 passing yards, a sub-60% completion rate, and at least two interceptions.

Betting Pick & Final Score Projection

• Expect a defense-driven contest with Houston keeping the margin close, especially early.

• Buffalo’s multi-dimensional offense eventually prevails against Mills and a Texans team missing its star quarterback.

Prediction:Bills 24, Texans 16Take Buffalo to win and Houston to cover the spread in a game trending under the posted total.

How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

• Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston

• Television: Prime Video

With the stakes rising late in the season and both teams chasing playoff positioning, Thursday night’s contest will likely be defined by Buffalo’s relentless offense against Houston’s suffocating defense, making it one of the more tactically intriguing prime-time games of the 2025 NFL schedule.