Falcons vs Colts Predictions - Week 10 Berlin Game

Colts vs Falcons in Berlin: Betting Preview and Game Breakdown

The NFL heads to Berlin, Germany, for a historic international clash as the Indianapolis Colts face the Atlanta Falcons at Olympic Stadium on Sunday, November 9. This Week 10 matchup carries intrigue—not just because it’s the league’s first-ever game in Berlin—but also due to the contrasting directions of both teams.

For Indianapolis, it’s a chance to bounce back from a frustrating 27-20 loss to Pittsburgh, a game marred by uncharacteristic turnovers. The Colts had rattled off four straight wins prior, taking down the Titans, Chargers, Cardinals, and Raiders. Meanwhile, the Falcons are trying to stop a three-game skid, a stretch where late-game mistakes have overshadowed flashes of potential.

Let’s dive deeper into how these two teams match up, the storylines to watch, and the best betting angles heading into Sunday morning’s international showdown.

Colts Look to Rebound from Rare Misfire

The Colts’ Week 9 loss was their first setback in over a month, and it had more to do with self-inflicted wounds than being outplayed. Quarterback Daniel Jones, who had been efficient through the first eight weeks, threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in Pittsburgh—matching his interception total from the previous eight games combined.

Despite that hiccup, Shane Steichen’s squad enters Berlin at 7-2 and remains one of the AFC’s most balanced teams. When the Colts stick to their formula—establishing Jonathan Taylor early, protecting the football, and pressuring quarterbacks—they’ve shown they can beat anyone.

Taylor’s production speaks for itself. The star running back has 12 total touchdowns this season, including 10 over his last five contests. Pittsburgh bottled him up, ending his scoring streak, but the upcoming matchup presents a chance to reset. Atlanta ranks 24th in rush defense DVOA, meaning this could easily become a “Jonathan Taylor game.”

If Indianapolis protects Jones and leans on its elite running game, the offense should rediscover its rhythm. The Colts have historically excelled after losses, winning five straight games following a defeat—a trend bettors shouldn’t ignore.

Falcons Fight Inconsistency and Identity Issues

Across the field, Atlanta sits at 3-5, a team full of potential but low on consistency. The Falcons nearly upset New England last week, losing 24-23 after a missed extra point, a result that sums up their season: close but costly mistakes.

Raheem Morris’ Falcons actually have the NFL’s stingiest pass defense, allowing just 158 yards per game through the air. The challenge hasn’t been preventing yards—it’s been creating key stops and sustaining drives on offense.

Bijan Robinson, one of the most dynamic backs in the league, is the key to flipping that script. The Falcons are 3-0 this season when Robinson gets at least 15 carries, yet Atlanta’s staff has been reluctant to commit to the run when games tighten. He had just 12 touches against New England and nine against Miami, leaving fans baffled.

If Atlanta wants any chance at an upset, Robinson needs to be heavily involved. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has managed the offense capably, but he performs best when supported by a strong ground game.

Keys to Victory

For the Colts:

• Protect Daniel Jones and limit turnovers.

• Feed Jonathan Taylor early and often—control the tempo.

• Force Atlanta into passing downs to neutralize Bijan Robinson.

For the Falcons:

• Establish Robinson as a true workhorse.

• Take advantage of Indy’s occasional secondary lapses.

• Maintain offensive balance—long drives help keep Taylor sidelined.

Taylor and Drake London headline the skill position storylines. London has been bright for Atlanta amid the losses, scoring three touchdowns last week. Even if Indy takes control early, London’s red-zone involvement makes him a reliable bet to score again.

Prediction and Betting Analysis

The Colts opened as 6.5-point favorites, and for good reason. They are 6-3 against the spread this season and have consistently bounced back after losses. Atlanta, conversely, sits at 2-5-1 ATS, though they’ve covered three of four games as underdogs.

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This one shapes up as a tactical matchup between Indy’s rushing dominance and Atlanta’s disciplined secondary. The Falcons have not been able to slow the run, and against a back like Taylor, that’s a dangerous weakness.

Pittsburgh showed how to disrupt Daniel Jones—pressure and disguise. The difference here is that Atlanta doesn’t generate the same type of interior rush. If Jones avoids turnovers, Indy should control the contest from the first quarter onward.

Still, international games often start slow and lean low-scoring. Timing, travel, and atmosphere tend to limit explosive plays. That’s why the Under 48.5 total points feels logical for this contest.