Cowboys vs Lions Week 14: Thursday Night Football Preview, Prediction, and Key Matchups

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Cowboys vs Lions Week 14

The Dallas Cowboys head to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions in a pivotal Week 14 Thursday Night Football clash on December 4, 2025, at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both teams sit on the playoff bubble, with Dallas at 6-5-1 chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East and Detroit at 7-5 trying to close the gap on Chicago and Green Bay in the NFC North. This matchup carries huge stakes for postseason positioning.​

Recent Form Sets the Stage

Dallas enters on a hot streak, winning three straight including a thrilling 31-28 upset over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys' offense has found rhythm, scoring on 60% of drives last week—tied for second-best in the NFL—while their wide receivers average 14.4 yards per catch, second in the league. Detroit stumbled with a 31-24 loss to Green Bay on Thanksgiving, marking their third defeat in five games, but they boast the NFL's top passing success rate at 56% from last season.​

The Lions dominated last year's meeting, crushing Dallas 47-9 behind Jared Goff's 315 yards and three touchdowns plus 184 rushing yards as a team. All-time, Dallas leads 19-13, but recent trends favor Detroit at home. Amon-Ra St. Brown missed Monday's practice with an ankle issue, adding uncertainty to their receiving corps.​

Betting Odds and Lines Breakdown

Detroit opens as 3-point favorites with a total of 54.5 points, moneyline at -160 for Lions and +134 for Cowboys via DraftKings and consensus lines. The over has cashed in 10 of Detroit's last 14 home games, and Dallas games have gone over in 14 of 20. Public models like SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates games 10,000 times and is up over $7,000 for top-rated NFL picks since inception, lean toward Dallas covering the spread at 53.7% confidence while predicting a Lions win at 60.9%.​

Cowboys ATS record stands at 7-5 (+1.6 units), thriving 8-4 on overs, while Lions are 6-6 ATS (-0.6 units) but 7-5 on overs. Detroit excels as favorites, going 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as 3+ point chalk, especially bouncing back from losses (14-0 SU since November 2022). Dallas struggles 4-5-1 SU as 3+ underdogs but covers at 7-3 ATS.​

Betting Category	Cowboys	Lions
Spread	+3 (-115)	-3 (-105)
Moneyline	+134	-160
Total	54.5 (-110)	54.5 (-110)
ATS Record	7-5	6-6
Over/Under	8-4 O	7-5 O

Star Quarterbacks Face Off: Dak Prescott vs. Jared Goff

Dak Prescott anchors Dallas, completing 69.3% of passes for 3,261 yards, 25 TDs, and a 102.4 rating across 12 starts, plus 124 rushing yards and two scores. He shredded Kansas City for 320 yards and two TDs last week. Prescott has topped 1.5 passing TDs in seven of nine recent games, and his mobility—hitting carries over in seven of eight—keeps defenses honest.​

Jared Goff powers Detroit efficiently, hitting 69.8% completions for 3,025 yards, 25 TDs (five INTs, 110.2 rating). Against Green Bay, he went 20-of-26 for 256 yards and two scores, adding a 24-yard run. Goff thrives in motion plays (58% success last season, best in NFL) and third-quarter passes (61% success). Dallas ranks 29th in yards allowed (376.2) and 31st in points (28.5), ripe for exploitation.​

Running Game Battle: Gibbs and Montgomery vs. Cowboys Front

Jahmyr Gibbs electrifies Detroit's backfield with 1,019 rushing yards (5.8 avg), 10 TDs, and 10 explosive 20+ yarders in 12 games. He erupted for 219 yards and two TDs plus a receiving score versus the Giants. Gibbs hits receiving yards over in 12 of 18, making him a dual-threat nightmare. David Montgomery complements with consistent home production, though unders on rushing yards in eight of nine at Ford Field.​

Dallas counters with a ground game leaning on Prescott's legs and backs like Javonte Williams (rushing over 65.5 projected). Cowboys succeeded on 52.9% of base rush plays last week (fourth-best), targeting Detroit's vulnerability (56% allowed, second-worst). Lions red-zone efficiency shines, running 22% of first-half plays there last season (best in NFL).​

• Gibbs: 74.5 rush yards prop, explosive long of 78 yards this year.

• Montgomery: 38.5 rush yards prop, carries under in seven of nine home games.

• Prescott carries over trends strong (+6.35 units ROI).

Receivers Who Can Swing the Game

George Pickens leads Dallas with 73 catches for 1,142 yards and eight TDs, hauling six for 88 yards last week and nine for 146 plus a score against Philly. He hits longest reception over in nine of 11 (+6.60 units) and receiving yards over in 11 of 15. CeeDee Lamb draws +1000 anytime TD odds, averaging 12.3 targets per prior Lions game—prime value at plus-money given Detroit allowing 19 WR TDs (most in NFL).​

Detroit's passing attack leverages motion and St. Brown (if healthy), with Jameson Williams at 81.5 receiving yards prop. Lions pass success ranks first (56%), but Cowboys WRs feast against them (13.8 yards per reception allowed, fifth-worst).​

Defensive Keys and Matchup Edges

Lions defense middles the pack (316.2 yards, 22.8 points allowed) but leaks points lately (over 22.8 in five of eight, last two straight). They struggle versus base rushes and WRs, where Dallas excels. Cowboys offense tops yards per game (375.4, first) and points (29.2-29.3 range), primed for backdoor covers.​

Detroit's pass success and red-zone prowess (best metrics) test Dallas' 31st-ranked scoring defense. Lions covered 4Q spreads in eight of 10 home games (+6.15 units). Both hit 1H overs frequently (Cowboys 16/19, Lions 15/22).​

Player Prop Bets with Value

• George Pickens receiving yards over 76.5: Hits in 11/15 (+6.25 units).

• Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards over: 12/18 trend (+5.10 units).

• Dak Prescott carries over: 7/8 games.

• David Montgomery longest reception over: 7/8 (+5.85 units).

• CeeDee Lamb anytime TD (+105): Volume and matchup scream score.

First TD scorer odds favor Prescott (+3500), Williams (+625), Pickens/Lamb (+1000).​

Team Trends and Advanced Stats

Cowboys crush 1H totals over (16/19, +12.65 units), 2Q overs (13/17), and 2Q spreads (13/17). Lions dominate 4Q home (8/10 spreads/ML) and 2H ML (11/18). Lions 10-2 SU vs. bottom-10 scoring defenses; over hits 10/14 home.​

Keys for Dallas: Exploit Lions' rush defense weaknesses, sustain drives (60% scoring last week). For Detroit: Leverage passing efficiency, red-zone trips, home bounce-back.​

Prediction: Cowboys Edge It, Stay Away from Spread

Dallas enters this matchup with the more explosive passing attack, stronger drive-to-score efficiency, and better recent momentum, giving them a real path to outperform expectations despite Detroit’s strong home record. The model may lean toward Detroit, but Dallas’ consistent success as an underdog, their downfield production from Dak Prescott and George Pickens, and their league-best yards per reception create a matchup advantage that the Lions have struggled to defend all season. If Amon Ra St Brown is limited or ruled out, the Cowboys shift from live underdog to outright threat.

Expect a high-scoring matchup that pushes the game total over, with Dallas positioned to steal a key road win. Tune in on Prime Video as the Cowboys look primed to break Detroit’s home streak and walk out with the upset.