Texans vs Lions Preseason Preview

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions

NFL Preseason Week 3 — Saturday, August 23, 2025 - Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EDT | Watch: NFL Network, NFL+

Betting Lines & Market Overview

Market	Texans	Lions
Spread	+1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+105	-125
Over/Under Total	35.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)	35.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

• Early sharp money has moved the line closer to Lions -1.5 from opening Lions -3.

• Total has dropped from 39.5 down to 35.5, reflecting conservative play and roster evaluation in preseason finales.

Team Performance & Context

Houston Texans

• Coming off a strong 20-3 win over Carolina, the Texans’ defense has been effective at limiting opponent drives, allowing only 6.5 points per game over two preseason contests.

• Defensive strength includes limiting sacks—Texans were 7-1 when allowing fewer than 3 sacks last season (T-5th best NFL).

• Offensively, Davis Mills leads the backup QB battle, showing improved command with 10-of-16 for 101 yards so far. The Texans’ rushing attack is productive, averaging 5.2 yards per carry (T-4th best NFL last season).

• Key weakness: Texans’ offense ran successful plays on just 34% of rush attempts last season—worst in NFL.

Detroit Lions

• The Lions have struggled but display strong resilience with an undefeated 8-0 road ATS record last season and multiple recent strong 2nd and 3rd-quarter performances.

• Backup QB Kyle Allen is impressing, with a near-perfect passer rating and 7-of-8 for 120 yards and 2 TDs last game, giving Detroit QB edge.

• Lions’ defense excels in key moments, allowing just 32% 3rd down conversions overall, best in NFL, and 7% late-down conversions with 4-6 yards to go.

• Offensively, Lions had the league’s best success rate on pass attempts (56%) and dominated red zone play in the 1st half (22% of plays run here, best NFL mark).

Key Player Prop Trends

• Ka’imi Fairbairn (Texans Kicker): Field Goals Over in 12 of last 14 games (+9.35 Units, 43% ROI)

• Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions RB): Rushing Yards Over in 13 of last 17 games (+8.40 Units, 43% ROI)

Matchup Insights & Keys to Victory

Focus	Houston Texans	Detroit Lions
Offensive Strength	Efficient rushing (5.2 YPC), QB growth	Passing success (56% completion rate) with Allen
Defensive Strength	Sack limitation, red zone stops	Third-down shutdown & red zone defensive coverage
Challenging Areas	Low rushing play success ratio	Defensive vulnerability to big plays late in games
Critical Matchups	Texans rush attack vs Lions 3rd-down defense	Lions passing game vs Texans’ secondary

Expert Picks & Best Bets

• Spread: Lions -1.5 — Backed by superior depth, QB play, and home field advantage.

• Total: Under 35.5 — Preseason Week 3 typically slows offensively as teams focus on evaluation and limit starters’ reps.

• Top Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over rushing yards — Given his recent performances and Lions’ offensive tendencies, he is a strong play here.

Additional Notes

• Both teams have many players fighting for roster spots, which may increase unpredictability.

• Ford Field’s indoor environment favors passing efficiency and limits weather variables, benefiting skillful backs and receivers.

• Texans have a history of strong first-half performances (1H Moneyline hit in 16 of last 21 games), meaning early momentum may be key.

• Lions’ 3Q performance is notable with consistent success ATS and over in recent games, suggesting halftime adjustments could be crucial.

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