Raiders vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 11 Odds, In-Depth Preview, and Prediction

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Monday Night Football returns in Week 11 with a non-conference showdown as the Las Vegas Raiders host the Dallas Cowboys at Allegiant Stadium on November 17, 2025. Both teams come with fresh legs. Dallas off a Week 10 bye and Las Vegas having played Thursday Night Football last week. This game carries significance for both squads looking to build momentum as they approach the second half of a challenging season.

Current Team Status and Recent Performance

The Raiders enter Week 11 with a tough mark as 3.5-point home underdogs. This comes amid a stark stat showing they've lost 17 of their last 18 games as underdogs. Despite a recent 10-7 loss to Denver, the Raiders covered double-digits as underdogs, highlighting their grit even when falling short. Still, they've dropped three in a row and have only one home win in 2025 so far, underscoring ongoing struggles.

The Cowboys are navigating a rough season as well, sitting at 3-5-1 and firmly trailing in the NFC East behind the dominant Philadelphia Eagles. Their last game as a 3.5-point home favorite ended in an upset loss to the Cardinals. That defeat triggered front office moves to improve their defense, including acquiring Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams around the trade deadline.

Key Statistical Matchups

A crucial battle will be Dallas’ rushing offense against Las Vegas’ run defense. The Cowboys rank 10th in rushing offense by DVOA, showing a consistent ability to move the ball on the ground. Conversely, the Raiders have been porous defensively against runs, ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA. Notably, teams like Jacksonville and Chicago, which rank near Dallas in rushing, found success running against the Raiders, lending credence to Dallas’ ground game advantage.

Dallas has found success rushing beyond individual games as well, going undefeated (3-0) this season when rushing for 135 yards or more. This makes controlling the ground game a clear focus if they want to pace the game and keep pressure off their defense.

Offensively, Dallas boasts a potent attack helmed by quarterback Dak Prescott, alongside dynamic receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. This trio represents one of the more explosive skill sets in the league. However, Dallas’ defense has been their Achilles heel ranking 31st overall in defensive DVOA, including 30th against the pass and 29th against the run. Interestingly, ESPN’s run-stop win rate metric gives them a better grade (7th), indicating some resilient moments despite overall poor metrics.

The Raiders’ offense is one of the league’s least effective units. Their pass offense is 30th by DVOA, while their rushing offense languishes at 32nd, dead last. Veteran QB Geno Smith has struggled, especially against zone defense schemes employed by Dallas, which have historically limited his production. Still, his recent injury a sore quad raises questions about the Raiders' offensive rhythm going into Monday night.

Scheme Implications and Tactical Considerations

Dallas uses a zone-heavy defensive scheme under coordinator Matt Eberflus, which could disrupt Geno Smith’s passing rhythm. Historically, Smith performs worse against zone coverage than man-to-man, suggesting Dallas’s scheme might minimize the Raiders’ passing threat.

If Smith is limited, the Raiders are likely to lean on rookie running back Ashton Jeanty to spark the ground attack. The tenacity and explosiveness Jeanty brings could pose a test to Dallas’ vulnerable run defense. Conversely, Dallas has shifted slightly toward a more balanced attack in recent games, increasing their running back handoff rate from 37% to about 42.5%, a strategic move to control clock and manage game tempo with Javonte Williams expected to carry a heavy workload, especially in the second half.

Emotional and Situational Factorshttps://www.footballnationusa.com/post/nfl-week-11-injury-tracker-fantasy-football-outlook-and-key-updates

The Cowboys are entering the game emotionally affected after the tragic death of defensive end Marshawn Keeland during their bye week. The impact of this loss can shape team focus and motivation in unpredictable ways—potentially galvanizing the squad or presenting a mental obstacle on the national stage.

Additionally, Dallas benefits from extra rest compared to the Raiders, who had a Thursday night game just days before. This scheduling quirk could influence fatigue levels and preparation time, giving Dallas a slight edge in freshness and game planning.

Betting Odds and Trends

Current odds favor the Cowboys by roughly 3.5 points, reflecting their perceived advantage despite defensive deficiencies. The moneyline holds Dallas at around -190 and the Raiders at +160, with an over/under climbing to 50.5 points.

The spread sitting above the key number of 3 raises some caution. Las Vegas has had several close games that ended within the number, suggesting potential volatility in covering the spread for Dallas.

Advanced predictive analytics give the Cowboys approximately a 62% chance to win this game, with simulations showing a close projected final score near 26-23 in Dallas’s favor. These models also indicate roughly an even chance for both teams to cover the line.

Looking Ahead: Cowboys’ Season Outlook

With a brutal schedule ahead including multiple games against last year’s playoff teams and division rivals, Dallas faces an uphill battle. Currently four games behind the Eagles in the NFC East and holding only a 5% playoff chance, the Cowboys appear more focused on building toward the offseason. New defensive acquisitions and returning starters could bolster their competitiveness in the coming weeks, but realistic postseason aspirations are slim for now.

How to Watch

Kickoff is set for Monday, November 17, 2025, at 8:15 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. National coverage will be available on ESPN and ABC.

Final Thoughts and Betting Advice

This primetime prime matchup offers both intrigue and complexity. The Cowboys’ offensive talent should challenge the Raiders’ inconsistencies, while Dallas’s struggling defense faces a test from a resilient Raiders ground game led by Jeanty.

Betting advice leans toward the Cowboys covering the spread if they can impose their rushing attack and apply pressure on Geno Smith. However, bettors should remain cautious due to Dallas’s defensive vulnerabilities and emotional factors surrounding the Cowboys.

Monitor injury updates and potential line shifts before making final wagers. This Monday night thriller is expected to be close, physical, and intense under the bright lights.