Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks – Monday Night Football Preview and Prediction (Week 7)

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The Week 7 slate wraps up under the lights in Seattle, where the Houston Texans (2-3) visit the Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at Lumen Field. Monday night’s matchup features two young teams trending upward, each trying to strengthen their playoff positioning heading into the back half of the season.

Setting the Stage

Houston enters this game off a bye, their last outing a commanding 44-10 road win over Baltimore. Under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have displayed flashes of dominance on defense, ranking among the league’s top five in defensive DVOA through five games. Their challenge on Monday will be maintaining that intensity against a red-hot Seattle offense led by Sam Darnold, who has found a rhythm in his first season with the Seahawks.

Seattle improved to 4-2 after defeating Jacksonville on the road in Week 6, giving head coach Mike Macdonald a chance to secure his first home win of 2025. The Seahawks have exceeded expectations on both sides of the ball and continue to thrive behind their defensive resurgence and a balanced passing attack.

Betting Overview

According to Caesars Sportsbook, the Seahawks enter as 3.5-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 41 points. Seattle holds a -182 moneyline, while Houston sits at +150.

Trends paint a clear picture of each team’s identity:

• The UNDER has hit in five of Houston’s last six games.

• The Texans are 1-6 in their last seven matchups against NFC West teams.

• The UNDER is 9-2 in Houston’s last 11 games played in October.

• The Seahawks are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.

• The UNDER has hit in six of Seattle’s last seven Monday games.

These numbers highlight two stout defenses and a potential grind-it-out type of matchup under the primetime lights.

Injury Report

Both teams enter with key question marks:

Houston Texans

• Jaylin Smith (CB) – IR

• Justin Watson (WR) – IR

• Cade Stover (TE) – IR

• Joe Mixon (RB) – NFI-R

• Folorunso Fatukasi (DT) – IR

Seattle Seahawks

• Devon Witherspoon (CB) – Questionable

• Riq Woolen (CB) – Questionable

• Julian Love (S) – Questionable

• Josh Jones (G) – Questionable

• Derrick Hall (LB) – Questionable

The Texans’ defensive depth could be tested, but their front seven remains strong enough to pressure Darnold consistently. Seattle’s secondary injuries are worth monitoring, especially with Houston’s ability to attack vertically when given time.

Matchup Breakdown

The biggest chess match will come in the trenches. Houston ranks third in pass-rush win rate, while Seattle’s offensive line sits just 22nd in protection efficiency. If the Texans can collapse the pocket early and force Darnold off script, they can keep this game close.

However, Seattle’s offensive efficiency has been elite. The Seahawks rank third in offensive DVOA, and Darnold leads all quarterbacks in both adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage over expected. Rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba currently leads the league in receiving yards, and his duel with Houston’s Derek Stingley Jr. could be one of the night’s defining battles.

Defensively, Seattle has quietly built a reputation for situational excellence, sitting inside the league’s top 10 in red zone defense. That discipline could be key against a Texans unit that tends to stall in scoring position.

Expert Predictions

Across multiple national outlets, the consensus leans heavily toward Seattle covering the -3.5 spread. USA TODAY’s entire panel — including Jon Hoefling, Jordan Mendoza, Tyler Dragon, Lorenzo Reyes, Christopher Bumbaca, and Blake Schuster — picked the Seahawks to win and cover.

Each cited variations of the same concern for Houston: Seattle’s defense being “too much for the Texans’ offensive line to handle” and the difficulty of playing from behind in the Lumen Field atmosphere.

Sports Illustrated’s Iain MacMillan, however, offered a different take, backing Houston +3.5, citing their defensive consistency and ability to keep games within one possession. MacMillan pointed out that Houston has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season at 12.2, suggesting they can hang around even in a hostile environment.

Statistical Trends and Totals Insight

Data trends also point toward a lower-scoring affair. Since 2003, games with totals between 42 and 45.5 points where both teams come in off extended rest have gone 64% to the UNDER. Since 2018, that rate jumps to 31-5 when both teams have 8-15 days between games.

Considering both defenses rank inside the top 10 in DVOA and Houston’s last three October road games have all stayed under the total, bettors and fans alike should expect a defensive struggle rather than an offensive showcase.

Prediction

Seattle’s home-field advantage, balanced attack, and defensive consistency make them the safer pick. Expect the Seahawks to control possession, limit big plays, and gradually wear down Houston’s front.

Final Prediction: Seahawks 23, Texans 17Best Bet: Under 42 Points (-110)

The Seahawks continue to assert themselves as legitimate NFC West contenders, while the Texans, despite their progress, still look a step away from breaking through against elite competition.

Kickoff: Monday, October 20 – 10:00 PM ETLocation: Lumen Field, Seattle, WABroadcast: ESPN

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered betting advice. Always wager responsibly and only with funds you can afford to lose.