Packers vs. Steelers Week 8 Preview: Odds, Predictions & Key Matchups

Football Nation
Oct 22
3 min read

Two of the NFL’s most storied franchises collide under the primetime lights when the Green Bay Packers travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, October 26. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, marking Aaron Rodgers’ first-ever game against the team with which he built his Hall of Fame résumé.

Game Odds and Lines

According to major sportsbooks, the Packers enter as 3-point favorites, with a total sitting at 45.5 points. The moneyline lists Green Bay at -170 and Pittsburgh at +140. Models give the Packers a 61.4% chance to win outright, with a 60.7% probability of covering the spread based on recent betting data and performance trends.

Betting Trends

Green Bay holds a 2-4 record against the spread this season and has struggled on the road (0-3 ATS). The Steelers, at 3-3 against the spread, have been more reliable at home (2-1 ATS). For totals bettors, the Packers lean Under (3-2-1), while Steelers matchups have hit the Over in four of six games.

Key Player Props

For Green Bay:

Jordan Love has gone Under on pass attempts in 13 of his last 16 outings.
Dontayvion Wicks has hit the receiving yards Under in 12 of 16.
Love’s touchdown pass total has also gone Under in 11 of 17 games.

For Pittsburgh:

DK Metcalf has recorded Under receptions in 12 of his last 14 contests.
Aaron Rodgers has gone Over his passing touchdown prop in 10 of 16 games.
Jaylen Warren has exceeded his receiving yards total in 11 of 16 recent matchups.

Team Performance Insights

Packers Best Betting Angles:

Have hit the first-half team total Under in nine of their last ten road games.
The fourth quarter has been their strongest period, hitting the game total Over in 12 of 17 contests.

Steelers Best Betting Angles:

Have hit the first-half total Under in seven of nine home games.
Covered the third-quarter spread in 11 of their past 17 outings.

Analytical Breakdown

The Green Bay Packers’ efficiency on the ground could prove decisive. Ranked among the NFL’s top teams in EPA per rushing attempt, Green Bay thrives on clock control and tempo management. This is key against a Pittsburgh defense that thrives on aggression and blitzing — the unit blitzes on 20% of all plays, third-highest in the league.

Defensively, Green Bay rarely blitzes yet remains effective generating pressure with Micah Parsons leading the charge. The big offseason addition comes off a dominant Week 7 performance, posting three sacks and five QB hits.

On Pittsburgh’s side, the offense has relied heavily on tight ends, targeting them on 34% of pass plays — the highest rate in the NFL. Red-zone usage shows the same trend, with Steelers quarterbacks throwing to TEs on half their inside-the-20 pass attempts.

Scrambling plays have also been a strength; Pittsburgh averages more than 10 yards per scramble, second-best leaguewide.

Statistical Matchups

The Steelers defense allowed 5.5 yards after contact per carry in Week 7, the worst mark in the NFL at that stage.
Pittsburgh’s defense, however, owns the league’s best red-zone passer rating allowed since 2023 (68.4).
The Packers’ defense has tightened inside the 20, but their vulnerability to explosive passing plays remains a concern.

Injury Updates

Green Bay: Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness, Brandon McManus, and Anthony Belton are all listed as questionable.

Pittsburgh: Safety Miles Killebrew is out; wide receiver Calvin Austin III is questionable.

Prediction

This primetime showdown pairs narrative weight with tactical intrigue. Rodgers facing his old franchise dominates the headlines, but the battle in the trenches will decide the tempo. Expect the Packers’ balanced offense to limit turnovers and lean on their run game efficiency, while the Steelers will try to exploit mismatches through tight ends and play-action.

Predicted Score: Packers 24, Steelers 20

Green Bay maintains its edge by controlling possession and neutralizing pressure. The total projects just Under 45.5 as both defenses tighten in red-zone situations, keeping explosive plays limited.