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Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys: Week 7 Preview and Predictions

October 19, 2025 — AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

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The NFC East picture has tightened after Philadelphia’s recent struggles, and Sunday’s matchup between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys could reshape the division. Both teams enter Week 7 looking to rebound from disappointing Week 6 losses, with kickoff set for 4:25 PM ET on FOX.


Betting Overview

Oddsmakers have Washington entering as a 2.5-point favorite over Dallas, with the over/under at 53.5 points. The moneyline lists the Commanders at around -135 and the Cowboys at +115, marking one of the rare occasions this season where Dallas is a home underdog.


Simulations and betting models across several outlets have leaned narrowly toward Washington:

  • Sports Betting Dime: Commanders 33.7, Cowboys 27.3

  • Dimers: Commanders 25, Cowboys 23

  • Sportsnaut: Commanders 34, Cowboys 28

  • ESPN Analytics: 50.3% chance Washington wins


Team Outlooks

The Cowboys’ defense has been the biggest concern. Through six weeks, Dallas has allowed an NFC-high 184 points, including 174 rushing yards and 251 passing yards per game over its last three contests. That defensive collapse has coincided with a string of injuries, inconsistent tackling, and an offense forced to play from behind.

Washington’s offense, led by Jayden Daniels, has cooled off after a fast start, but the Commanders continue to produce enough balance to stay competitive. Daniels’ dual-threat ability remains central to their game plan, complemented by a group of versatile playmakers that can attack a defense in multiple ways.


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Injury Report

Commanders: WR Terry McLaurin, DT Eddie Goldman, WR Noah Brown, and LB Kain Medrano are all listed as questionable.Cowboys: WR CeeDee Lamb, LB Jack Sanborn, OT Ajani Cornelius, and G Tyler Booker are questionable.


Lamb’s potential return could tilt the offensive rhythm back in Dallas’ favor. Without him, Dak Prescott’s options downfield are limited, forcing shorter passes and heavier use of George Pickens underneath.








Key Storylines

  • Quarterback Pressure: Both Daniels and Prescott enter needing statement performances. Daniels is seeking to regain his 2024 form, while Prescott must stabilize a Dallas team that’s given up too many late-game leads.

  • Coaching Familiarity: Washington’s Dan Quinn, formerly with Dallas, knows the Cowboys’ offensive tendencies—a factor that could prove critical in close-game situations.

  • Trench Battle: Washington’s offensive line will be tested by Dallas’ front, but the Commanders’ ability to establish tempo early may keep the Cowboys’ defense on its heels.


Trends and Totals

  • Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight meetings with Washington.

  • The Over has hit in 13 of the last 19 matchups between these two teams.

  • Washington is 8-4 to the Over in its last twelve divisional games.

  • Dallas has gone Over in nine of its last twelve home games.


Models from multiple outlets predict this matchup will again trend high-scoring, with more than 60% of simulations favoring the Over.


Prediction

The Commanders’ balanced attack will challenge Dallas early, but home field, urgency, and Dak Prescott’s ability to improvise late give the Cowboys the edge. If CeeDee Lamb suits up, expect a much sharper performance from the Dallas offense. In a matchup likely decided in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys hold serve at home and even up the division race.


Final Score: Dallas Cowboys 31, Washington Commanders 28

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