Commanders vs. Dolphins Week 11 Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Key Storylines

The Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins Week 11 matchup is generating buzz as the NFL makes a historic visit to Madrid, Spain, marking the first regular-season NFL game held on Spanish soil. Set for Sunday, November 16, this game offers a compelling storyline amid injury woes, team struggles, and a palpable sense of urgency as both teams strive to keep playoff hopes alive. Here's an in-depth look at this pivotal clash, early odds, key players to watch, injury updates, and predictions for the game.

Game Overview and Context

The Commanders and Dolphins both enter this Week 11 matchup with identical 3-7 records, reflecting challenging seasons. The Dolphins, however, bring a little more momentum, having won two of their last three games, including a significant 30-13 victory over the Buffalo Bills—an opponent that had dominated their recent meetings. Conversely, the Commanders are reeling, coming off their fifth straight defeat, a 44-22 loss to the Detroit Lions, underscoring their struggles on both sides of the ball.​

The fact that this game is played at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, home of Real Madrid, adds a unique flavor, with both teams arriving early in Madrid to acclimate and prepare. The spotlight is bright on this historic event as the NFL expands internationally.​

Early Odds and Betting Lines

DraftKings Sportsbook shows the Dolphins as slight favorites with a -2.5 spread (-110), reflecting confidence in Miami's ability to exploit Washington's numerous weaknesses. The moneyline favors the Dolphins at -142 against the Commanders’ +120. The over/under total is set at 47.5 points, suggesting expectations for moderate scoring.​

The early pick leans to the Dolphins covering the spread. Miami's defense, which held Buffalo to 13 points recently, and their dynamic rushing attack led by rookie running back De'Von Achane, are projected to pose significant challenges for the injury-ravaged Commanders.​

Washington Commanders Injury and Team Status

The Commanders are facing a crisis of injuries that have severely undermined their competitiveness. Franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels is out with an elbow injury, sidelining him for another week. Backup Marcus Mariota leads the offense but struggles to maximize production given the depleted receiver corps, which notably lacks star WR Terry McLaurin, out with a quadriceps injury. Other key injured players include cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos, who are on injured reserve and injured reserve respectively, along with edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, out for the season due to injury. Defensive lineman Daron Payne is suspended. Additional questionable statuses include Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jonathan Jones, and Ale Kaho, further weakening the roster.​

Washington's defense has floundered, especially in pass rush and coverage, ranking last in defensive dropback EPA and with just four sacks in four games. Their vulnerability to the run is also significant, surrendering the 10th most rushing yards per game.​

Despite these setbacks, Marcus Mariota has shown flashes of competence, completing 16 of 22 passes for 213 yards and throwing two touchdowns in the most recent loss. However, the overall team morale and effectiveness remain low, with the team largely resigned to a lost season.​

Miami Dolphins Key Players and Form

Miami’s season has been inconsistent, but signs are promising after their recent win over Buffalo. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has shown effective playmaking ability when given time in the pocket, despite a league-leading 12 interceptions this season. His connection with running back De'Von Achane has been particularly fruitful.

Achane emerged as the star in the Buffalo game, rushing for a season-high 174 yards and scoring twice. He represents Miami's central offensive weapon going into this matchup. With the absence of star WR Tyreek Hill (season-ending injury), Miami’s offense leans heavily on short throws and a strong rushing attack, with Achane playing a pivotal role.​

Miami's defense has also played well recently, with a dominant performance against Buffalo, including three takeaways and multiple sacks, which could stifle Washington's struggling offense.​

Betting Trends and Predictions

The Commanders have struggled against the spread, particularly as underdogs (1-6 ATS), while the Dolphins are a middling 5-5 against the spread. The over/under trends favor moderate scoring, with the Dolphins' slow-paced offense averaging near 28.6 seconds per snap and a preference for conservative play-calling.​

Considering the matchup dynamics, injury impacts, and recent performances, the prediction favors the Miami Dolphins to win and cover the -2.5 spread. The combined offenses likely won’t reach high scoring totals, making the under 47.5 total a strong option.

Player to Watch: De'Von Achane

Achane is the key X-factor for the Dolphins. His explosive rushing ability has been evident all season, and against a Washington defense that has struggled to contain rushing attacks, his workload is likely to increase. The Commanders have allowed opposing running backs to rack up big numbers, giving Achane ample opportunities to dominate the ground game and control the clock.​

Detailed Breakdown of Washington Commanders’ Recent Struggles

The Commanders' last five losses have been heavy defeats, with four by more than 20 points. Their defense has struggled to contain dynamic playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams, who combined for 291 yards and four touchdowns against Washington in Week 10. The offense, while showing moments of promise under Mariota, has been hampered by slow starts, injuries, and lack of execution.​

The injury report continues to grow weekly, affecting key positions and depth, leading to a difficult rebuilding year and likely limited focus on short-term results.​