Texans vs Colts Week 13 Preview: Odds, Predictions, Injuries, and AFC South Breakdown

The Week 13 NFL matchup between the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 30, 2025, promises to be a defining moment in the AFC South race. The Colts (8-3) return home to Lucas Oil Stadium aiming to bounce back from a recent overtime loss, while the Texans (6-5) enter riding a strong defense and a three-game winning streak. This game encapsulates a fierce divisional rivalry with playoff implications, making it a must-watch for NFL fans and bettors alike.

Team Form and Standings

The Indianapolis Colts head into this game with an 8-3 record, but they have dropped two of their last three games. Despite recent setbacks, the Colts dominate at home, boasting an undefeated 6-0 record on their turf. Their offense has cooled slightly after a hot start, averaging fewer points in recent games, but they still maintain the best efficiency on motion plays in the NFL, gaining an average of 7.3 yards per motion play. Houston, by contrast, is 6-5 and gaining steam with four wins in their last five contests. Their defense ranks second-best in the NFL by points allowed per game, holding opponents to just 16.5 points on average. However, their offense struggles to generate consistent scoring, putting pressure on their defense to perform.

Injury Reports and Key Absences

Injury news right before the game confirms some critical absences that could impact gameplay. Houston Texans will be without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud and star defensive back Jalen Pitre, among others. These gaps leave questions around their offensive production and secondary strength. Indianapolis Colts face the ongoing loss of Pro Bowl offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, which could affect pass protection and run blocking. The health and availability of these key players will influence the game's momentum and strategy significantly.

Offensive Matchups and Player Focus

A key player to watch is Jonathan Taylor, the Colts' running back who leads the league in rushing yards but was limited to just 58 yards in the last game. Taylor’s performance will be pivotal against a Texans defense that allows an average of 92.2 rushing yards per game but recently gave up a strong performance to James Cook. On the passing side, Daniel Jones must navigate the Texans' top-ranked defense in defending play-action passes, a technique that has been effective for him thus far in the season. For Houston, offensive struggles mean they will rely heavily on field position and special teams to stay competitive.

Defensive Strength and Tactical Battle

The Houston Texans' defense stands out as their greatest asset, ranking second-best in points allowed and excelling at defending play-action, which will be critical against the Colts’ run-heavy attack and motion plays. The Colts defense ranks ninth in points allowed but has added strength with the return of key players like Sauce Gardner. This battle will be a tactical chess match, with Houston aiming to stifle the Colts’ efficient motion plays and Indianapolis seeking to exploit gaps in the Texans’ run defense.

Betting Trends and Predictions

The betting community favors the Colts with a -4.5 point spread and a total projected score around 44.5 points. Notably, the Texans are 5-6 against the spread and 1-4 on the road, while the Colts are 7-3-1 ATS and an impressive 4-1-1 at home against the spread. The low total points line suggests expectations for a defensive, slower-paced game. Predictions lean toward the Colts edging out a win at home but acknowledge the Texans’ ability to keep the game close and potentially cover the spread. Player prop bets highlight Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards and the receiving prowess of Colts' wideouts like Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman as lucrative options.

The Texans vs. Colts game kicks off Sunday, November 30, at 1:00 p.m. ET from Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium. CBS broadcasts the matchup nationally, making this game accessible to a wide audience eager for a thrilling AFC South contest.