Bears vs. Packers Week 14: NFC North Showdown at Frozen Lambeau

Football Nation
3 days ago
3 min read

Chicago Bears (9-3) face Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) in a pivotal NFC North showdown on December 7 at Lambeau Field, with the Bears holding the division lead by one game. Packers open as 6.5-point favorites with a 44.5 total, but Chicago's surprising surge under new coach Ben Johnson ignites talk of a rivalry revival.

Rivalry Rekindled by Johnson's Bold Jab

Green Bay dominates recent history, winning 11 of the last 12 against Chicago, but Bears head coach Ben Johnson poured gasoline on the fire in January. "To be quite frank with you, I kind of enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year," Johnson declared, drawing from his Lions OC days where Detroit went 5-1 versus the Packers.

LaFleur likely stewed on that quote since January 22, fueling preparation for this clash. Bears sit atop the NFC at 9-3, the season's biggest surprise—no one outside Chicago expected this ascent. Packers lurk close, fresh off Thanksgiving dominance.

Yet Chicago's offense remains untested against elite defenses like Green Bay's, which allows the fourth-fewest yards (284.8 per game) and fifth-fewest points (18.8).

Bears' Untested Attack Meets Packers' Stonewall Defense

Bears go 6-0 when rushing for 140+ yards but drop to 3-3 below that mark, facing Green Bay's run-stuffing prowess. Packers went 3-0 against top-four rush attacks, limiting Lions to 82.5 yards across two games and Commanders to 51—both average over 135 seasonally.

Chicago's line leads NFL in pass-block win rate, unlike Detroit's group swarmed in Week 13. Bears exploded for 425 yards, 28 first downs, and 39+ minutes time of possession in a Friday rout of Philadelphia.

Packers QB Jordan Love ranks No. 1 in EPA per play over three games, converting 80% red-zone trips to touchdowns while dominating third downs.

Category	Bears Record	Packers Record
ATS	8-4 (+3.65 units, 27.65% ROI)	5-7 (-2.7 units, -20.3% ROI)
Moneyline	9-3 (+9.4 units, 61.24% ROI)	8-3 (-4.85 units, -11.6% ROI)
vs. Spread Key No. 6	Recent road dogs cover trends	10-2 ATS last 12 vs. Bears

Betting Odds and Line Movement Breakdown

Packers opened -5.5, jumping to -6.5 after sharp money hit below the key 6; moneyline sits at Bears +260/-320 Packers, total dipped from 45.5 to 44.5 amid Lambeau chill forecasts.

Models split: One gives Packers 62% win probability (Bears 38%), another Packers 54.5% outright but Bears 73.3% cover chance factoring ATS trends and public money.

Sub-freezing temps loom without snow or wind, potentially overreacting the under—both offenses surge lately.

Key Player Props and Trends

Bears props lean under for receivers: Olamide Zaccheaus longest reception under (9/10 games, +7.80 units), Rome Odunze yards under (12/17, +6.25), Cole Kmet receptions under (11/15, +5.85). Kyle Monangai carries over shines (7/8, +5.75).

Packers favors: Jordan Love INTs under (14/18, +8.75 units), completions under (12/17, +6.35), pass attempts under (12/17, +6.20); Josh Jacobs longest reception under (last 6, +6.00).

Rushing props spotlight Josh Jacobs 78.5 (over -118), D'Andre Swift 46.5 (-115). First TD odds: Caleb Williams +1900, Swift +1000.

Bears trends: ML hits 12/20 (+10.90 units), 4Q over 9/10 roads (+7.90), team total over 13/20 (+5.15). Packers: 1H team under 15/21 (+8.50), 3Q home under last 8 (+8.00).

Defensive Edges and Situational Stats

Packers defense NFL-best on 3rd-and-long (40.6 passer rating, 78 attempts last season vs. 83.1 avg), limits 1Q scores (15% drives, best), red-zone 3Q plays (8%, best), 40+ passes (0%, 1/565).

Green Bay thrives on opponent penalties (4-0 at 60+ yards last year), sans turnovers (2-1, T-3rd), vs. bottom-10 rushers (5-1), but dips vs. 30+ rushes (2-3).

Bears must pressure Williams (clean: 104.9 QB rating; pressured: 57.3), win 3rd downs, protect Love. Packers keys: Stop run, late plays.

Historical: Packers 1-11 SU last 12 vs. Bears? Wait, data flips—Green Bay owns recent edge. Under hits 5-1 Packers last 6 homes.

Prediction and Playoff Stakes

John Breech tabs Packers 24-17 (-6.5), citing run defense and untested Bears offense; LaFleur retorts postgame. Early leans split: Bears +6.5 for value, over 44.5 on offenses.

Chicago falling here drops them from NFC's top spot, handing division lead to Green Bay. Lambeau magic, history, defense tilt hosts—expect grind favoring Cheeseheads in cold.