Bills vs Buccaneers, Prediction, Odds & Game Preview
- Football Nation
- Aug 22
- 3 min read
NFL Preseason Week 3 – Saturday, August 23, 2025 - Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EDT | Watch: Football Nation
Betting Odds & Lines
Market | Buffalo Bills | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
Moneyline | -125 | +105 |
Over/Under Total | 37.5 (-110) | 37.5 (-110) |
Team Overview & Recent Form
Buffalo Bills (0-2 Preseason)
The Bills have faced two tough preseason games, losing 34-25 to the Giants and 38-0 to the Bears, struggling to put up consistent offensive production.
Mitch Trubisky has taken snaps at QB, combining for one touchdown and modest passing yardage (138 yards on 9-of-13 passing vs. Giants; 55 yards on 7-of-13 vs. Bears).
Running back Frank Gore Jr. has been active with notable receiving and rushing yards in both games.
The offense has notable challenges in scoring consistency, and the defense allowed multiple points in each quarter against the Bears.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0 Preseason)
The Buccaneers have started preseason strong, defeating Tennessee 29-7 and edging Pittsburgh 17-14.
Quarterbacks Kyle Trask and Teddy Bridgewater have led efficient offenses, combining for multiple touchdowns and solid passing efficiency.
Running backs Owen Wright and Sean Tucker have contributed substantially on the ground with combined rushing yards and scores.
Wide receivers Ryan Miller and Sterling Shepard have provided reliable receiving production.
Key Player Prop Trends
Bills
Josh Allen: Has hit Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.2 Units, 36% ROI).
Rushing and receiving contributions from Curtis Samuel, Josh Palmer, and James Cook have been notable in prior games against AFC opponents.
Buccaneers
Bucky Irving: Rushing Yards Over in 14 of last 18 games (+9.2 Units, 43% ROI).
Key contributors Jalen McMillan and Baker Mayfield have strong trends in touchdown scoring, rushing and receiving yards in recent games.
Matchup Insights & Keys to the Game
Buffalo Bills | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Undefeated late season (4-0 last 4 weeks) | Winless when within 3 points late game (0-3) |
Strong at home since 2023 (15-1) | Effective vs. top 10 pass defenses (4-1) |
Effective vs. top 10 run defenses/offenses | 9-5 when turnover margin within 1 of opponent |
High scoring drives in first half | High 4th quarter 3rd down conversion rate (60%) |
Offensive & Defensive Statistical Highlights
Bills Offense:
Best in NFL on motion plays (0.26 EPA per play), second-best yards per play on motion (7.1).
Started 25 drives inside opposing territory last season (2nd-most in NFL).
Lowest success on late downs in close situations (0% on 40 such plays last season).
Buccaneers Offense:
Second-best success rate on pressured pass attempts (48%).
Best 4th quarter 3rd down conversion rate in NFL (60%).
Threw for 41 touchdowns last season (2nd-most NFL).
Bills Defense:
Allowed only 3% of 3rd and long passes for 20+ yards (best in NFL).
Worst in NFL allowing late down conversions with 4-6 yards to go (13%).
Best in NFL in 3rd quarter scoring defense (19% of opponent drives).
Buccaneers Defense:
Second-best rush defense success allowed in 4th quarter (30%).
Second-highest blitz rate in NFL (25%).
Best late down conversion defense in recent weeks (4%).
Fourth-best passer rating allowed on play action passes (89.1).
Expert Prediction & Betting Analysis
The Bills enter as narrow favorites at -1.5 points despite a 0-2 preseason record, reflecting offseason expectations and roster strength.
The Buccaneers, undefeated in preseason, look to continue momentum at home with +1.5 points.
The total points are set at a moderate 37.5, reflecting likely conservative play and roster evaluations typical of Week 3 preseason games.
Summary
This preseason finale pits an undefeated Buccaneers squad against a struggling Bills team seeking momentum. Tampa Bay’s balanced offense and opportunistic defense face a Bills team with strong ability on motion plays and effective territory management but recent inefficiency in finishing drives. Both teams have standout players contributing consistently, making for an intriguing contest focused on roster depth and situational execution.
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