Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders - Week 6 Preview

The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders clash in a Monday Night Football showdown that promises offensive fireworks and dramatic storylines. With the Bears riding a two-game win streak into a pivotal Week 6 matchup after a bye and the Commanders boasting a dynamic rushing attack, this contest has serious playoff implications and narrative weight for both franchises.

Game Overview

Monday, October 13th, 2025, marks a rematch of last year’s wild finish—a game decided by a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. This season, both teams enter with rookie quarterbacks selected as the top two picks in the 2024 draft: Caleb Williams for Chicago and Jayden Daniels for Washington. Each has delivered flashes of brilliance and endured rookie growing pains, shaping the identity of their respective teams.

Recent Performance and Streaks

• Chicago Bears (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS): After losing to divisional rivals Minnesota and Detroit, Chicago rebounded with impressive wins over Dallas and Las Vegas, energizing their fanbase and stabilizing their 2025 campaign. Recovery on defense is a focal point, with reinforcements expected if key starters T.J. Edwards and Kyler Gordon return.

• Washington Commanders (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS): Kliff Kingsbury’s squad is fresh from a convincing 27-10 victory over the Chargers. Daniels was sharp in his return from injury, throwing for 226 yards and a touchdown, while rookie running back Jacorey Croskey-Merritt exploded for 111 yards and two scores.

Matchup Dynamics

Offensive Trends

• Chicago: Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is renowned for creative game plans after a bye. Detroit averaged a staggering 44 points per game coming off the bye with Johnson at the helm, a promising trend as Chicago seeks to maximize its weaponry with Williams under center.

• Washington: The Commanders are one of the NFL’s most efficient running teams, ranking third in EPA per rush and success rate and sixth in offensive DVOA. Croskey-Merritt leads the league in yards per carry (6.6), making him a nightmare matchup for Chicago’s struggling front seven. The Commanders also thrive on explosive runs, putting pressure on defensive gaps and outer lane integrity.

  
  

Defensive Matchups

• Bears: Chicago’s defense sits at 23rd in defensive DVOA and is the worst in the NFL against the run, allowing a staggering 6.1 yards per carry and ranking dead last in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate. They allowed 240 rushing yards to Vegas before the bye, with their front seven bullied at the line and in the second level.

• Commanders: While Washington can struggle against big passing plays—their secondary ranks last in PFF coverage grade and permits over 8.2 yards per opponent passing attempt—Chicago must exploit this vulnerability. The Commanders allow over 350 yards per game, but their front four can generate pressure, as evidenced by four sacks vs. Justin Herbert last week.

  
  

Special Teams and Turnovers

Washington delivered on opportunities last game with two key turnovers inside the Chargers’ 30-yard line, scoring 14 points off those takeaways. Ball security has been a relative strength for Chicago this season, and extended rest could amplify their discipline on offense. Expect special teams to play a key role, especially in field position and responding to sudden changes.

Trends and Stats to Know

Team	ATS Last 5 Home	SU Last 15	ATS Last 9 vs Opponent	OVER Trends
Bears	N/A	3-12	2-7	4/5 road games OVER
Commanders	5-0	N/A	N/A	4/5 home games vs Bears OVER

• The Bears are just 1-9 straight up in their last ten post-bye games and have failed to cover in eight of those.

• Washington has won seven of their last ten home games against the Bears and are 5-0 ATS at home lately.

• The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games between these two teams in Washington, with offensive production outpacing defensive adjustments.

  
  

Coaching and Intangibles

Ben Johnson (Bears) and Kliff Kingsbury (Commanders) are both regarded for offensive ingenuity. Johnson’s ability to scheme receivers open and manufacture big plays in space will test a soft Washington secondary, while Kingsbury’s run-heavy philosophy aims to exploit Chicago’s glaring weakness up front.

The revenge factor adds intrigue—Caleb Williams seeks to avenge last season’s loss, and Chicago’s locker room is motivated to erase the pain of a prime-time defeat and turn the page toward playoff relevance.

Key Players to Watch

• Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: Williams’ trajectory as a rookie has included highlight throws and improvisational off-script playmaking. Improved chemistry with WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen is critical.

• Jacorey Croskey-Merritt, RB, Commanders: The rookie’s league-leading yards per carry and dynamic acceleration make him the spotlight player against a porous Bears run front.

• T.J. Edwards & Kyler Gordon, Bears (Injury Watch): Their potential return could stabilize a battered defense and provide coverage flexibility.

• Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders: Daniels’ dual-threat skill set challenges defensive discipline in both passing and option run plays, especially when rolling out and creating throwing angles.

  
  

What to Expect

Given these trends, expect point-scoring surges and high-variance possessions on both sides. Chicago’s offense seeks chunk plays through the air with Williams' deep ball and Johnson’s creative routes, while Washington’s run game will look to control the clock and feed Croskey-Merritt to set up play-action opportunities.

Both defenses have exploitable weaknesses: Chicago struggles to plug gaps and maintain edge containment, while Washington’s secondary often leaves receivers in isolation with blown zone responsibilities. The final result may hinge on which quarterback better manipulates coverage shell breakdowns and converts on third downs.

Betting Notes and Prop Angles

• The Commanders are a 4.5-point home favorite, but Chicago has the rest advantage and recent momentum.

• The recommended pick is the OVER (49.5), given scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities.

• Jacorey Croskey-Merritt props are enticing, with his yards per carry projected to exploit Chicago’s league-worst mark.

• Watch for injury updates, as key pieces returning for Chicago could swing the spread and defensive outlook.

  
  

Final Word

Expect a loud, energetic MNF at FedEx Field with two of the NFL’s brightest rookie QBs dueling for postseason positioning and franchise momentum. Chicago eyes a third straight win, powered by a rejuvenated offense and the urgency of revenge, while Washington seeks to continue their home dominance and capitalize on ground-game mismatches. The safe bet: an offensive spectacle, high-score potential, and a result determined by quarterback heroics and defensive resilience against the run and deep pass.