Dallas Cowboys 2025 Season Outlook

Offense Leads, Defense Steady but Limited

The Dallas Cowboys enter 2025 with an exciting offensive core and an improved yet still middling defense. Despite defensive talent returning and developing, Dallas is unlikely to advance far beyond its 2024 middle-of-the-pack status. Meanwhile, the offense, led by a healthy Dak Prescott and dynamic receivers, remains the team’s best bet to push them to a winning record.

Defense: Solid Pass Rush Anchors a Middle-Tier Secondary

• In 2024, Dallas ranked 17th in pass yards allowed per game at 218.1, a drop from prior years, reflecting inconsistency in coverage and vulnerability to big plays.

• The pass rush was a highlight, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 52 sacks behind linebacker Micah Parsons, who boasts an average of over 13 sacks per season and 52.5 career sacks in four years. This pressure rate exceeded 30%, creating turnovers and making opposing QBs uncomfortable.

• Returning cornerstone corner Trevon Diggs will improve coverage stability. Diggs’ talent in creating turnovers (14 interceptions from 2021-22) makes him a true No. 1 corner capable of limiting top WR threats.

• Kaiir Elam brings size and physicality and showed flashes in press coverage; positive progression could help tighten pass defense.

• Ballhawk safety DaRon Bland (9 interceptions in 2023) adds playmaking upside, especially with Diggs reclaiming healthy coverage support.

• Rookie Shavon Revel Jr. offers promising depth late in the season, addressing injury concerns that impacted 2024.

• Despite these positives, the secondary's overall quality likely keeps Dallas a middle-tier defense, projected around 12th-18th in pass defense metrics.

Offense: One of the NFL’s Most Potent Units

• Dak Prescott looks fully healthy and mentally ready following a 2024 hamstring injury. Prior to injury, he ranked 3rd in NFL passing yards (4,045 yards in 2023) and led the league in completions, positioning Dallas for a pass-heavy 2025 attack.

• CeeDee Lamb, the third-highest paid WR in the NFL, finished 2023 with a breakout 1,745 yards and 12 TDs. His production dipped with Prescott sidelined but is expected to rebound strongly with a full, healthy season.

• New addition George Pickens is projected to be a strong WR2, complementing Lamb with a target share around 24% similar to his role with Pittsburgh, where he posted over 1,100 yards in multiple seasons.

• Dallas’ offseason spending and preseason plans focused on enhancing the passing game while spending minimally on the run game, ensuring a high volume of early and frequent passes.

• Brian Schottenheimer’s deliberate preseason “vanilla” approach reflects confidence in unveiling an electric, multi-dimensional passing attack in 2025.

Category	2023 Season	2024 Season	2025 Projection & Notes
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game	187.4 yards (Top 10)	218.1 yards (Rank 17)	Expected improvement to ~203 yards, middle-tier pass defense
Interceptions	17	13	Anticipated rebound to ~15 with Diggs and Elam healthy
Opponent Passer Rating	80.8	99.5	Projected below 86 with tighter coverage and pass rush combo
Team Sacks	46 (Top 10)	52 (3rd in NFL)	Elite pass rush sustained; 50-55 sacks projected
Pressure Rate (%)	21.3%	30.1% (Top 10)	Maintaining above 24% pressure rate
Points Allowed Per Game	~20.6 (21st)	27.5 (31st)	Should improve from bottom-third to middle tier
Dak Prescott Passing Yards	4,516 yards (healthy)	3,862 yards (injured year)	Full health expected 4,000+ yards and top NFL completion totals
CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards	1,745 yards (healthy)	~900 yards (injury-shortened)	Projected rebound to 1,400+ with Prescott
George Pickens Receiving Yards	N/A (Not on team)	1,100+ yards (Pittsburgh)	Expected to be dependable WR2 with ~24% target share
Offensive Philosophy	Balanced to pass-heavy	More pass-heavy	Schottenheimer to increase passing volume 2025
Season Record	12-5	7-10	10-7 forecast driven primarily by offense

Prediction 10-7 Record Driven by Offense

While the Dallas defense has refined its pass rush and secured key secondary returns, it is unlikely to return as a top-five unit. The Cowboys should be middle of the NFL pack defensively, good enough to limit damage but still prone to giving up yards through the air.

The offense, however, stands as a league strength, combining a healthy, experienced quarterback with a potent receiving corps led by Lamb and Pickens. This pairing, alongside Schottenheimer’s refined play-calling, is expected to push Dallas into offensive upper-echelon status.

Together, these factors paint a picture of a 10-7 season, with the offense carrying the load in close games and the defense doing just enough to keep Dallas competitive. This is a team positioned for solid playoff contention, though not necessarily a dominant championship favorite.