Drew Allar's Breakout and Green Bay's Protection Problem: 2026 Projection Update

Pittsburgh's 28 to 9 preseason win over Green Bay did more than produce a strong final score. It created two different season questions. The Steelers now have evidence that their quarterback room may be deeper and more explosive than expected. The Packers have evidence that their regular season offense could decline sharply if injuries force the reserve offensive line and backup passers into extended action. The starters will still determine both seasons, but the depth behind them changed the projection.

Allar gave Pittsburgh a new development path

Drew Allar completed 10 of 13 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns, then added another score on the ground. His 74 yard connection with Kaden Wetjen showed the vertical ability that separates a developmental quarterback from a simple emergency option. Allar did not merely protect the offense. He expanded it. Mason Rudolph completed 10 of 11 passes for 93 yards, while Will Howard went 7 of 9 for 86. Pittsburgh finished 27 of 33 through the air with 313 net passing yards. One clean night does not settle the depth chart, but it gives the coaching staff multiple ways to handle a short term injury, a poor performance or a future transition.

The receiver and protection evidence matters

Wetjen caught only two passes, but they produced 79 yards and a touchdown. That kind of speed can earn a roster spot through both offense and the return game. The Steelers do not need him to become a high volume target. They need him to force safeties backward, create field position and punish defenses that crowd the line. Green Bay had the opposite experience. The Packers finished with only 97 net passing yards and allowed five sacks. Their quarterbacks completed 19 of 30 passes, but the offense rarely created room for yards after the catch or vertical gains. Trey Smack's three field goals, including one from 58 yards, prevented the scoreboard from becoming even more lopsided.

Pittsburgh's 2026 projection

Football Nation currently projects Pittsburgh in a 9 to 11 win range and in the AFC wild card race. The upside case reaches higher if the starting offense protects the football and the defensive front remains disruptive. Allar's emergence raises the floor because the Steelers no longer need every quarterback snap behind the starter to be purely conservative. The caution is sample size. Preseason defenses simplify coverage, and the next test will be whether Allar can identify pressure, move through progressions and maintain accuracy after the first read disappears. If he does, Pittsburgh may have found a long term answer before it expected to need one.

Green Bay's 2026 projection

Football Nation still projects Green Bay in a 9 to 11 win range and in the NFC North race because Jordan Love and the established skill players remain the foundation. The preseason loss does not lower the starting offense's ceiling. It does lower confidence in the injury floor. Five sacks and 97 net passing yards indicate that a tackle injury, a quarterback absence or multiple changes along the line could turn a balanced offense into a survival operation. The Packers should use the next two games to test communication, pressure recognition and the ability to create easy completions for the backups. Smack's range is a real positive because it gives Green Bay points when a drive stalls outside the normal scoring area.

What changes next

Pittsburgh can now give Allar more difficult situations rather than simply more snaps. Third and long, red zone pressure, two minute work and disguised coverage will reveal whether the breakout can become a role. Green Bay needs the opposite approach. The Packers should simplify the reserve offense enough to evaluate the line, then gradually add protection changes and deeper concepts. The Steelers left with a higher quarterback floor. The Packers left with a clearer warning about how quickly their offense could shrink if the protection depth is not fixed.

Projection verdict

The Steelers remain an AFC playoff contender, but Allar's performance gives them more flexibility and a better long term outlook. The Packers remain an NFC North contender, but the reserve line now ranks among the roster's most important preseason problems. Pittsburgh gained an option. Green Bay found a vulnerability. Both discoveries matter more than the 19 point margin.