New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints - Week 6 Preview

The New England Patriots are riding high after one of the biggest upsets of the 2025 NFL season, stunning their AFC East rival, the Buffalo Bills, with a 23-20 victory on the road. Now at 3-2, the Patriots are looking to build on that momentum as they face the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome in Week 6. The Saints, meanwhile, are coming off their first win of this campaign, a 26-14 home victory over the New York Giants. This interconference showdown promises to be a compelling test for both teams, each striving to establish a winning rhythm in the 2025 season.

Patriots vs. Saints Odds and Betting Overview

The betting outlook from leading sportsbooks is firmly in favor of the Patriots extending their success. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites (-115), with the Saints as +3.5 underdogs (-105). On the moneyline, the Patriots stand at -210 while the Saints are +176. The total points (over/under) is set at 45.5, with the OVER at -115 and the UNDER at -105.

The Patriots have shown an ability to cover the spread recently, going 4-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last six games, and 5-2 ATS on the road over their last seven road contests. Historically, New England has dominated October road games, winning their last 13 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Saints have struggled ATS lately, going 6-12 ATS in their past 18 games, though they do perform better against the Patriots historically, especially in their home venue in New Orleans where Patriots have a rough 5-1 edge.

The betting trends also suggest an interesting contrast on points scored—the OVER has hit eight times in the Patriots’ last 12 games, but the UNDER has been dominant (7-1) in New England’s matchups against NFC South teams like the Saints. This may set the stage for a tactical battle, with the Saints' low-scoring profile as a caution for betting the total too high.

How and When to Watch

This Week 6 battle is slated for Sunday, October 5, with kickoff at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The game will be played inside the iconic Caesars Superdome and broadcast nationally on CBS.

Injury Reports and Player Availability

New England faces several injury issues heading into this game. RB Antonio Gibson is out, hampering the Patriots’ running game. LB K'Lavon Chaisson and DE Keion White are questionable. Additionally, guards Layden Robinson and Isaiah Iton remain on injured reserve.

The Saints also carry injury concerns with CB Isaac Yiadom, DE Chase Young, C Cesar Ruiz, and S Justin Reid all questionable. DT John Ridgeway III is listed on injured reserve but expected to return soon.

Key Player to Watch: Drake Maye, Patriots QB

The sophomore quarterback for New England, Drake Maye, has been a revelation despite limited offensive weapons and offensive line challenges. Through the first five games, Maye boasts a 73.9% completion rate, averages 252.2 passing yards per game, and has thrown seven touchdowns. His ability to efficiently exploit defenses will be critical against a Saints team ranked poorly in pass defense.

Historical Context: Patriots vs. Saints Series History

This Week 6 meeting marks just the 17th time the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints have faced off since their first encounter in 1972. Overall, the Patriots hold a 10-6 series lead but have dominated in New Orleans with a 5-1 record in the Superdome. The Saints' only home win against New England was in 2009 during their Super Bowl championship season, highlighted by a quarterback duel where Drew Brees threw for five touchdowns to defeat Tom Brady’s Patriots 38-17.

Since then, historic duels between legends Brees and Brady tilted in favor of the Patriots, with Brady’s teams winning the last two matchups, including a 36-20 win in New Orleans in 2017.

Analysis and Prediction

The Patriots arrive as clear favorites after their five-week build-up of momentum culminating in their stunning Buffalo victory. In contrast, the Saints are still finding their footing under first-year head coach Kellen Moore, having just nabbed their first win. New England's offense, spearheaded by Maye, ranks in the upper tier for passing efficiency, while the Saints rank near the bottom defensively, especially against the pass.

Betting trends also favor New England covering the 3.5 spread given their recent road success and October dominance. Statistically, fading underdog teams off a cover bet has been profitable in recent seasons, reinforcing the Patriots’ case.

The total points line of 45.5 looks tight given both teams’ recent scoring outputs. The Patriots held the Bills to just 20 points in a dominant defensive effort, while the Saints have struggled to score consistently, often held under 20 points. Given these factors, the UNDER seems a prudent bet, but an OVER wager could yield a return if New England’s offense fires on all cylinders.

Final Pick and Score Prediction

Expect the Patriots to extend their October road winning streak with a close but confident victory over the Saints, covering the spread at -3.5. The Saints will put up resistance but likely fall short due to New England's offensive efficiency and superior defense.

Predicted final score: Patriots 24, Saints 17Best Bet: Patriots -3.5 spreadTotal Points: Lean toward UNDER 45.5 points

This game holds significance for both franchises. For the Patriots, it's a potential turning point en route to establishing themselves as AFC East contenders. For the Saints, the game offers a chance to build on momentum and prove competitiveness at home against a resurgent opponent. NFL fans should expect a competitive, strategic game marked by strong quarterback play and tactical defensive adjustments.