Packers vs Lions Week 13 Preview: Thanksgiving Odds, Picks, and Betting Analysis

The NFC North’s traditional Thanksgiving curtain-raiser has real teeth this year, with Green Bay traveling to Ford Field for a matchup that might ultimately decide the division’s pecking order. Both the Packers (7-3-1) and Lions (7-4) arrive off Week 12 wins, a Week 1 data point that favored Green Bay, and a betting market that leans narrowly toward the home team. It’s the classic contrast: the NFL’s hottest young defense against one of its most explosive, multi-dimensional offenses.​

Stakes and storylines

Green Bay already owns a 27-13 win over Detroit from the opener, when Jordan Love was efficient and turnover-free and the Packers controlled both lines of scrimmage. Since then, Matt LaFleur’s team has tightened the screws defensively, sitting top-five in both scoring defense and pass yards allowed while giving up fewer than 280 total yards per game. Detroit, meanwhile, has ridden a top-three rushing attack and a top-two scoring offense to stay firmly in the NFC playoff mix, even while alternating wins and losses for over a month.​

The standings and schedule crank up the urgency. Green Bay enters at 7-3-1 with a chance to sweep the season series and effectively grab the tiebreak stranglehold in the division. Detroit, sitting at 7-4, has dropped games to the Vikings, Eagles, and Chiefs in recent weeks and cannot afford another setback at home if it wants to chase a top-two seed and at least one playoff game in Detroit. Add the national stage, the short week, and the history of these franchises on Thanksgiving, and you get a game that feels like more than just one tick in the win-loss column.​

Lions offense vs. Packers defense

This is the headliner matchup: Jared Goff and one of the league’s most efficient offenses against a Green Bay defense that has quietly become a nightmare on passing downs. Goff enters with 2,769 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, just five picks, and nearly 70% completion, while orchestrating an attack that ranks top-10 in passing and top-three in rushing. The engine is Jahmyr Gibbs, who sits third in the NFL with 951 rushing yards at a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry, adding nearly 380 receiving yards and 13 combined touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains Goff’s security blanket and explosive playmaker, already at 75 grabs for 884 yards and nine scores as one of the most complete receivers in the sport.​

Green Bay’s answer is a front seven that has grown into one of the most disruptive units in the league. Micah Parsons (10 sacks) and Rashan Gary (7.5) give the Packers two premier edge rushers, flanked by Quay Walker and rookie Edgerrin Cooper as tone-setters in the second level. The numbers tell the story: Green Bay ranks fifth in scoring defense, fifth against the pass, and sixth against the run, giving up just 18.4 points and 278.7 yards per game. In Week 1, that translated into four sacks on Goff and only 46 rushing yards allowed, as Detroit’s ground game never found traction. For Detroit to flip the script, Ben Johnson has to stress Green Bay horizontally with Gibbs, re-involve David Montgomery in the power run game, and manipulate Green Bay’s aggressive rush with play-action and quick game to St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.​

Packers offense vs. Lions defense

The other side of the ball offers its own fascinating chess match between a surging Jordan Love and a Lions defense that has taken a step back from last year’s peak. Love has thrown for 2,560 yards with 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions, completing 67.7% of his passes and ranking among the league’s most efficient quarterbacks in yards per attempt. Josh Jacobs gives the Packers a physical identity on the ground with 648 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, plus meaningful usage in the passing game, while Romeo Doubs headlines a young receiver group with 522 yards and four scores. The Packers are only 15th in scoring at 23.9 points per game, but they’ve shown the ability to spike when Love is protected and the run game is at least respectable.​

Detroit’s defense has not matched its offense’s dominance, ranking around the middle of the pack in most categories. The Lions allow 22.1 points per game and over 312 total yards, with a run defense just outside the top 10 and a pass defense that has been leaky against high-end quarterbacks.

The unit still has playmakers: Jack Campbell leads with 102 tackles and four sacks from linebacker, Aidan Hutchinson brings 8.5 sacks and consistent pressure off the edge, and Brian Branch is a versatile slot defender and blitzer with 2.5 sacks. The concern is that Detroit has struggled in pass protection metrics and in coverage against top-10 passing offenses; the Lions are 0-3 straight up in games versus top-10 pass DVOA units, giving up big efficiency numbers through the air. If Love gets clean pockets and Detroit leans heavily on man coverage, his strong EPA and DVOA splits versus man suggest Green Bay can create explosive plays, especially off play-action.​

Injuries, trends, and betting angle

Both teams enter the short week banged up but hopeful for key pieces to suit up. Green Bay has several starters listed as limited or questionable, including Josh Jacobs, Quay Walker, Zach Tom, multiple receivers, and rotational rushers like Lukas Van Ness, while corner Keisean Nixon has not practiced. Detroit is monitoring the health of its offensive line, with Taylor Decker, Penei Sewell, and center Graham Glasgow all limited or DNP early in the week, and key defensive backs like Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch on the report. If the Lions are down multiple starters up front, Green Bay’s pass rush advantage only grows; if the Packers are missing Jacobs or multiple wideouts, their margin for error shrinks considerably.​

The market reflects how tight this matchup projects to be. Detroit is a small home favorite, sitting between -2.5 and -3 with a total around 48.5–49.5 depending on the book. Against the spread, Detroit is 6-5 overall and 5-2 when laying at least a field goal, while Green Bay is just 4-7 ATS and 1-4 on the road, though the Packers have covered comfortably in recent wins behind their defense. Trends also point toward scoring: the over is 4-1 in Packers road games and 3-2 in Lions home contests, aligning with Detroit’s second-ranked scoring offense and Green Bay’s growing comfort in pushing the ball downfield. Still, several analytical and betting previews lean slightly toward Green Bay to cover on the strength of its pass rush and man-coverage passing advantage, even as others project a narrow Detroit win in the high-teens to mid-20s range.​

In the end, this Thanksgiving game likely swings on two battlegrounds: whether Green Bay can once again bottle up Gibbs and Montgomery on early downs, and whether Detroit’s protection can hold up long enough for Goff to attack intermediate windows against an aggressive front. If Love plays clean and the Packers front four dictates, Green Bay is live not just to cover but to steal another outright win; if Detroit stays on schedule, protects the ball, and leans into its home-field rhythm, the Lions have the offensive firepower to finally flip this year’s script and even the season series.​