Steelers vs Bengals: Predictions, Picks, and Storylines for NFL Week 7

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Date: Thursday, October 16Kickoff: 7:15 PM ETLocation: Paycor Stadium, CincinnatiBroadcast: Prime Video

The AFC North is heating up and Week 7 brings another heavyweight matchup under the Thursday night lights as the Pittsburgh Steelers (4–1) head to Ohio to face the Cincinnati Bengals (2–4).

They are calling it the “Icy Hot Bowl” for good reason. This is just the fourth NFL game since 1950 to feature two starting quarterbacks over the age of 40. It is Aaron Rodgers vs Joe Flacco, two veterans who have seen everything the league can throw at them. The last time we saw something like this was back in 2020 when Tom Brady faced Drew Brees.

The Steelers are rolling with three straight wins and control of the AFC North. The Bengals, meanwhile, are searching for answers after dropping four in a row since Joe Burrow went down. But with Flacco taking over last week, Cincinnati’s offense showed its first signs of life in weeks.

Can Pittsburgh stay hot and make it four straight, or can Flacco spark an upset at home? Let’s break it down

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Steelers vs Bengals Odds

Spread: Steelers -5.5 | Bengals +5.5 - Moneyline: Steelers -250 | Bengals +215 - Over Under: 43.5- Kickoff: 7:15 PM ET

Odds via BetMGM and DraftKings

Expert Picks and Predictions

Jon Hoefling: Bengals +5.5

“Joe Flacco always seems to give the Steelers fits. On primetime, at home, expect the Bengals to make this closer than anticipated.”

Jordan Mendoza: Steelers -5.5

“Cincinnati has been awful without Joe Burrow. With four straight double digit losses and the Steelers clicking, it does not feel safe to think the Bengals can cover.”

Tyler Dragon: Steelers -5.5

“The Steelers have won three of their last four against Cincinnati. The Bengals slide will not end this week.”

Lorenzo Reyes: Steelers -5.5

“Mike Tomlin’s bend but don’t break defense should give Cincinnati problems all night. On a short week, Flacco probably does not even know all his teammates’ names yet.”

Christopher Bumbaca: Bengals +5.5

“Home underdogs on Thursday night are on a roll, so why not stay with the trend. Let’s believe in Joe Flacco one time.”

Blake Schuster: Bengals +5.5

“Division battles are almost always close. Flacco knows Tomlin’s Steelers as well as anyone. If Cincinnati can find even a little more offense, it should cover.”

Three Key Storylines

Rodgers Leaning on Efficiency

Aaron Rodgers is off to an efficient but conservative start. He is averaging 204.2 passing yards per game, which would be a career low for a full season, but he has taken only nine sacks and committed just three turnovers in five games. That is a massive improvement from 2024 when he took 40 sacks and had 13 turnovers.

The Steelers offense is built on quick throws. Nearly 30 percent of their passes are behind the line of scrimmage, and 71.8 percent of their yards have come after the catch. DK Metcalf has been the main weapon with a touchdown in four straight games, but Rodgers has distributed the ball well to Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Calvin Austin III.

That approach should work against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most yards after catch in the league (999) and 7.2 yards after catch per reception this season. Cincinnati could also be without Trey Hendrickson (hip), which would hurt their pass rush.

Flacco Finds Rhythm in Cincinnati

In his first start as a Bengal, less than five days after being traded from the Browns, Joe Flacco struggled early but found his groove after halftime. He completed 21 of 30 passes for 179 yards and threw a fourth and goal touchdown to give the Packers a scare in Green Bay.

Tee Higgins had his best game of the year and Ja’Marr Chase came alive with a late touchdown. Despite a few drops from Andrei Iosivas, the Bengals offense looked more fluid than it has in weeks.

With Joey Porter Jr. back in the lineup, the Steelers secondary is at full strength. Porter, Darius Slay, and Jalen Ramsey will be tasked with containing Chase and Higgins, who are expected to handle most of the target share again. Tight end Mike Gesicki remains on injured reserve, Tanner Hudson is in concussion protocol, and Iosivas has struggled to build trust, so the Bengals will lean heavily on their top wideouts.

Steelers Defense Turning Up the Pressure

After a quiet start, the Steelers defense is back to looking like the Steelers defense. They have 20 sacks on the season, including six in Week 6. T.J. Watt remains the headliner, but it has been Nick Herbig leading the surge with 4.5 sacks over the past three games.

The Bengals offensive line has allowed 16 sacks this year, though just one came with Flacco under center last week. The biggest vulnerabilities have been on the edges. Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims have both been inconsistent, with Brown allowing the lone sack against Green Bay.

Cincinnati has not rushed for more than 85 yards in a game this season, which puts added pressure on Chase Brown and the running game to find some rhythm against a tough front.

Injury Report

Steelers:

• Calvin Austin III (shoulder) OUT

• Miles Killebrew (knee) OUT

• DeShon Elliott (questionable)

• Malik Harrison (questionable)

• Rodgers, Watt, Slay, Ramsey all practiced fully by midweek

Bengals:

• Mike Gesicki (pectoral) IR

• Trey Hendrickson (back) DNP all week

• Tanner Hudson (concussion) DNP

• Charlie Jones (ribs) DNP

• Mims, Patrick, Stewart full participants

  
  

Final Word

The Steelers come in confident and in rhythm while the Bengals are trying to stop the bleeding and reignite their season. Rodgers has been efficient, the defense is heating up, and Pittsburgh has the look of a team built to control games.

Still, division matchups rarely go as expected. If Flacco can connect early with Chase and Higgins and get the crowd behind him, Cincinnati has a real chance to make this a fight. But if the Steelers defense stays aggressive and Rodgers keeps the quick game rolling, Pittsburgh should stay atop the AFC North.

Either way, the Icy Hot Bowl might just live up to its name.