Steelers vs Chargers - Week 10 Preview, Predictions, and Betting Odds

Sunday Night Showdown: Steelers vs. Chargers Week 10 Preview & Predictions

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Sunday Night Football delivers another marquee AFC matchup as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Both teams sit firmly in the playoff mix as the AFC standings tighten, and the primetime spotlight will magnify every possession. Oddsmakers have the Chargers favored by a field goal in this one, with the over/under hovering around 45.5 points.

Let’s break down what’s shaping up as one of Week 10’s most intriguing showdowns.

Betting Overview

• Spread: Chargers -3

• Moneyline: Steelers +130, Chargers -155

• Total: 45.5 points

• Kickoff: Sunday, November 9, 2025 – 8:20 p.m. ET

• Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

• Broadcast: NBC

The opening line favored Los Angeles by 3.5, but early action on Pittsburgh trimmed the spread to an even field goal. That could dip further with mounting interest in the underdog. Given current trends, the Steelers at +3 present real value, particularly considering how both defenses are performing.

Steelers Finding Defensive Identity Again

Pittsburgh’s 27-20 win over Indianapolis in Week 9 was the kind of defensive effort that can redefine a season. Coordinator Teryl Austin drastically reduced the blitz rate from 46% to just 24%, relying instead on disciplined zone coverage and unpredictable rotations. The result? Six takeaways, four sacks, and one of their most efficient defensive games in recent memory.

The Steelers held the league’s top-ranked rushing offense to just 78 yards on the ground, bottling up Jonathan Taylor to a meager 3.2 yards per carry. After two straight weeks of being humbled defensively by Cincinnati and Green Bay, Mike Tomlin’s adjustments were spot on.

Pittsburgh now ranks among the league’s top-five units in pass-rush win rate and sits firmly in the top 10 in total defensive EPA over the last month. If that front seven can replicate the same disruption against Justin Herbert, they’ll have a chance to pull this upset outright.

Chargers Battling Through the Trenches

Los Angeles enters at 6-3 after edging Tennessee 27-20 last Sunday, but there’s concern along the offensive line. Rookie tackle Joe Alt is out for the season, and both Bobby Hart and Mekhi Becton remain questionable. That’s a nightmare scenario against Pittsburgh’s pass rush, which already ranks second league-wide in quarterback pressures.

Herbert has been sacked 28 times through nine games—well on pace to shatter his previous career high. He’s also thrown eight interceptions, many under duress. The Bolts’ offensive identity will rely heavily on Herbert’s quick release, rollout designs, and a versatile receiving corps that can stretch the field horizontally.

The passing attack remains potent. Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen have each topped 500 yards, while Quentin Johnston continues to emerge as a red-zone weapon with six touchdowns. Tight end Oronde Gadsden II is averaging over 14 yards per catch, giving Los Angeles depth and flexibility that few AFC teams can match.

Chargers Defense: Quietly One of the Best

Jim Harbaugh’s debut season in Los Angeles has been defined by defensive discipline. The Chargers rank sixth in total defense, allowing just 286.8 yards per game. Their pass defense, third-best in the league, is anchored by an opportunistic secondary and a deep front-seven rotation.

Tuli Tuipulotu’s emergence as a premier edge rusher has filled the void left by Joey Bosa’s departure. With seven sacks and ten tackles for loss already, Tuipulotu commands attention from every blocking assignment. Add in the interior contributions from Justin Eboigbe and Odafe Oweh, and the Chargers can pressure quarterbacks from multiple angles.

If Pittsburgh struggles to protect Aaron Rodgers, expect Tuipulotu and Daiyan Henley to make their presence felt quickly.

Pittsburgh’s Offensive Outlook

Offensively, the Steelers’ success will hinge on balance and patience. Their run game, ranking fifth in DVOA, has been their steadying force. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell shared touches efficiently against Indianapolis, benefiting from improved offensive line play in zone concepts.

However, Pittsburgh’s passing game remains inconsistent. Rodgers struggled to push the ball vertically last week, as the team gained just 5.2 yards per play while converting 17 first downs. With DK Metcalf as their lone downfield threat, the Steelers will need creative usage of motion and play action to generate big plays.

Against a zone-heavy defense like Los Angeles, expect Tomlin and coordinator Matt Canada to lean on screens, slants, and check-downs, hoping to chip away at yardage while controlling possession.

X-Factors and Matchup Metrics

Pass Rush Differential

• Steelers defense ranks 2nd in pass-rush win rate

• Chargers offensive line ranks 30th in pass-block win rate

Run Game Efficiency

• Steelers rush offense DVOA: 5th

• Chargers rush defense DVOA: 27th

Turnover Margin (Season)

• Steelers: +5

• Chargers: +1

Statistically, this is where Pittsburgh can thrive. When they’ve faced poor run defenses this year, their efficiency spikes dramatically. Their Week 9 balance—five scoring drives off turnovers—showed they can capitalize when given short fields.

Early Picks and Predictions

Spread Pick: Steelers +3 (-114 FanDuel)This line reflects too much confidence in a battered Chargers offense line. Pittsburgh’s recent defensive resurgence, coupled with their ability to run the ball effectively, makes this one of the sharper underdog plays of Week 10.

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Total Pick: Under 45.5 (-110 FanDuel)Both teams boast top-10 defenses, and the pace of play likely leans conservative. Expect sustained drives and limited explosive plays, especially given Los Angeles’s zone coverage prowess and Pittsburgh’s preference for clock control.

Final Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Chargers 20

Pittsburgh ekes out a second straight upset win behind timely pressure, turnover creation, and a resurgent run game.

What to Watch For

1. Can the Steelers’ pass rush exploit the Chargers’ makeshift offensive line?

2. Will Justin Herbert survive repeated pressure without forcing turnovers?

3. Do the Chargers have enough running back depth to maintain balance after losing Omarion Hampton?

4. Can the Chargers defense keep Rodgers and Metcalf from finding rhythm downfield?

5. Which team maintains composure in the 4th quarter when pass rush fatigue sets in?

Bottom Line

This isn’t just another midseason Sunday night matchup—it’s a potential playoff preview. The Steelers, suddenly reenergized defensively, face their toughest aerial challenge of the year against a deep Los Angeles offense. Meanwhile, the Chargers aim to protect home turf and keep pace in the AFC West race behind the Broncos.

Expect a physical, tight-contested game where turnovers and trench battles define the outcome. For bettors and fans alike, Sunday Night Football in Inglewood should deliver four quarters of high-stakes drama worthy of primetime.