Steelers vs Ravens Week 14: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries & Best Bets

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Steelers vs Ravens Week 14: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries & Best Bets

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens (6-6) in a pivotal AFC North clash on Sunday, December 7, 2025. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS, with the Ravens installed as 6-point favorites and a game total of 43 points. Both teams scramble for playoff positioning after recent stumbles—Pittsburgh lost five of seven, while Baltimore snapped a five-game win streak with a Thanksgiving upset to Cincinnati.

This rivalry game carries massive stakes in a tight division. Models project Ravens victory at 70.2% confidence from simulations factoring injuries, matchups, and trends, yet Steelers hold 56.9% ATS cover probability. Expect a gritty battle where Baltimore's home edge meets Pittsburgh's defensive grit.

Betting Odds Breakdown

Current lines via major sportsbooks show Ravens -6 (-110), Steelers +6 (-110). Moneyline sits at Steelers +225, Ravens -275. Over/Under: 43 (-110/-118). Spread opened at -5.5, ticking up amid sharp money on Pittsburgh.

Bet Type	Steelers	Ravens
Spread	+6 (-110)	-6 (-110)
Moneyline	+225	-275
Total	O 43 (-110)	U 43 (-118)

Ravens boast 7-5 Over record (+1.5 units), while Steelers sit 6-6 even. Public leans Baltimore ML, but sharps eye Steelers +6 given road ATS woes (1-4).

Team Records & ATS Trends

Steelers: 5-7 ATS (-2.55 units, -19.7% ROI), 6-6 ML (-1.6 units). Road struggles evident at 1-4 ATS. Ravens: 4-8 ATS (-4.85 units, -36.5% ROI), 2-5 ATS home. Yet Baltimore 6-6 ML, 7-5 Over.

Quarter trends favor Steelers: 12-18 2Q ML (+9.2 units), 13-18 2Q spread cover (+7.4 units), 7-8 2Q Over away (+6 units). Ravens counter with 13-18 3Q Over (+7.6 units), 12-21 1Q ML (+6.85 units).

Both at .500, paths differ—Pittsburgh grinds defenses, Baltimore exploded pre-loss (avg. win margin 12.8 points over five). DVOA ranks Ravens 8th offense/12th defense in streak.

Injury Reports

Steelers: Derrick Harmon OUT, James Pierre/Patrick Queen QUESTIONABLE, Broderick Jones IR. Ravens: Chandler Martin OUT, Nate Wiggins QUESTIONABLE, Taven Bryan/Justice Hill IR. Lamar Jackson returns key—5-4 with him vs. 1-2 without, though recent 56% completion over four games (1 TD).

Pittsburgh's line depth tested; Baltimore misses Hill's versatility. Monitor Queen—linebacker impacts run fits vs. Ravens ground attack.

Top Player Prop Bets

Profitable trends highlight Unders. Steelers side: DK Metcalf Receiving Yards UNDER (14/17, +10.55 units, 55% ROI), Jonnu Smith Longest Reception UNDER (11/12, +9.85 units, 72% ROI), Metcalf Receptions UNDER (13/17, +8.2 units). Calvin Austin III Longest Reception UNDER (7/8, +5.9 units).

Ravens: Lamar Jackson Completions UNDER (11/15, +6.45 units), Pass Attempts UNDER (11/15, +6.3 units), Longest Rush UNDER (7/8, +5.95 units). Tylan Wallace Receptions UNDER (6/6, +6.3 units); Rashod Bateman UNDER (11/16, +6.2 units).

First TD odds: Jaylen Warren (PIT) +900 tops value; Aaron Rodgers +12500 longshot.

Key Stats & Matchup Edges

Steelers shine on contested throws: 0.25 EPA/play (T-best, lg. avg. -0.06), 8.4 YPP (NFL-best vs. 5.3 avg.). Tight coverage: 5.4 YPP (2nd, vs. 3.8). But 1Q success 37% (3rd-worst vs. 44%).

Ravens dominate motion plays (7.4 YPP, best vs. 5.8), first drives (7.6 YPP, best vs. 5.5), base fronts (7.4 YPP, best). 3rd/short passing rare: 11% (6/53 att., lowest vs. 44%).

Offense notes repeat edges—Pittsburgh contested prowess tests Baltimore secondary; Ravens motion/motion exploits Steelers early-down stops. Defenses mirror: Steelers tight-coverage strength vs. Jackson's recent rush limits (3.2 YPC last four).

Historical Unders hit 9/10 rivalry games; Pittsburgh below-avg. yards/EPA/DVOA fuels low total lean.

Steelers vs Ravens Prediction

Ravens rebound at home, covering -6 in 70% sims despite ATS woes. Jackson (3-5 vs. PIT, 8 TD/9 INT) exploits Steelers' 365.1 YPG allowed. Baltimore's prior dominance (wins by 7+ in streak) overwhelms fading Pittsburgh (2-5 DVOA slide, Rodgers no multi-TD since Week 8).

Pick: Ravens -5.5 to -6. Lean Under 43—defenses/rush focus, Jackson cooler (1 TD past four). Steelers keep close early via 2Q trends, but Baltimore pulls away 24-17. Playoff implications huge: Winner bolsters wild-card tiebreakers.