2026 AFC West Predictions: Final Rankings, Records and Playoff Calls
- Football Nation
- 5 hours ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 55 minutes ago
The 2026 Football Nation USA division prediction series continues with the AFC West. I compared my final schedule picks with a consensus baseline derived from ESPN’s preseason power panel, published August 31, 2026. ESPN’s list ranks all 32 teams, so I ordered the four AFC West teams according to their positions in that leaguewide ranking.
Continue the 2026 NFL projection series with 2026 NFC South predictions, 2026 NFC West predictions, and 2026 AFC South predictions.
This is not an ESPN projected standings table. The records, division finish and playoff decisions below are my own. I also separate a team being a playoff contender from actually making my final playoff field. Both ranking sections below run from fourth place to first, saving the division winner for last.
Consensus ranking
4. Las Vegas Raiders: No. 27 overall in ESPN’s panel.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: No. 14 overall in ESPN’s panel.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: No. 13 overall in ESPN’s panel.
1. Denver Broncos: No. 4 overall in ESPN’s panel.
My final ranking, record and playoff call
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 6 wins and 11 losses. Playoffs: OUT. Fourth in the AFC West.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 10 wins and 7 losses. Playoffs: IN. AFC wild card team.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 11 wins and 6 losses. Playoffs: IN. AFC wild card team.
1. Denver Broncos: 12 wins and 5 losses. Playoffs: IN. AFC West champion.
The playoff picture
My AFC West sends three teams to the playoffs. Denver wins the division. Kansas City and the Chargers enter as wild card teams. Las Vegas is out.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 6 wins and 11 losses
Las Vegas is competitive enough to produce several upsets, but not consistent enough to stay in the postseason race. The Raiders sit at 2 wins and 7 losses after nine games, with victories over Miami and the Jets. They later beat Seattle, Cleveland, Denver and Kansas City. Those late division wins make the rebuilding season more encouraging, but the early hole is too deep.
Offseason context: Las Vegas reset almost everything. Klint Kubiak brings an outside zone and play action offense, Kirk Cousins is the bridge for No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, and the failed Maxx Crosby trade leaves Crosby leading a much deeper pass rush.
Final playoff call: OUT. Six wins leave Las Vegas well outside my AFC playoff field.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 10 wins and 7 losses
Los Angeles is my third double digit winner in the division. The Chargers start with victories over Arizona, Las Vegas and Seattle, then beat Denver to reach 4 and 1. Losses against Buffalo, Kansas City and the Rams make the path harder, but wins over Houston, Baltimore, the Jets, Las Vegas, Miami and Kansas City carry the Chargers to 10 wins. Late losses to New England, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Denver prevent a higher finish.
Offseason context: Mike McDaniel is installing a quicker, motion heavy offense around Justin Herbert, but Tyler Biadasz’s season ending ACL injury forces rookie Jake Slaughter into the starting center job. David Njoku and Alec Ingold add system fits, while Khalil Mack and Derwin James remain defensive anchors.
Final playoff call: IN. The Chargers survive the crowded AFC race and claim my final wild card position.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 11 wins and 6 losses
Kansas City reaches 11 wins and 6 losses and remains firmly inside my playoff field. My picks have the Chiefs opening 4 and 0 before their bye and reaching 6 and 2 after nine weeks. The difficult portion arrives later with losses against Buffalo, the Rams, the Chargers and Las Vegas. Victories over Cincinnati, New England and San Francisco keep Kansas City safely in the postseason race.
Offseason context: Patrick Mahomes was fully cleared for camp after his December ACL tear, with Justin Fields added as insurance. Eric Bieniemy returns, Kenneth Walker III changes the running game, and Kansas City is rebuilding a secondary that lost Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook.
Final playoff call: IN. Kansas City finishes one game behind Denver but earns one of my AFC wild card berths.
1. Denver Broncos: 12 wins and 5 losses
Denver is my division winner at 12 wins and 5 losses. The schedule opens with a loss at Kansas City, but my picks have the Broncos responding with wins over Jacksonville, the Rams and San Francisco. Denver also beats Seattle, Arizona and Kansas City before the midpoint. Losses against the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and New England keep the race competitive, but victories over Buffalo and the Chargers help Denver finish on top.
Offseason context: Denver added Jaylen Waddle as Bo Nix’s proven separator and vertical threat, while Davis Webb takes over play calling from Sean Payton. The Broncos kept most of the offensive core, though the defense must replace John Franklin Myers, Dre Greenlaw and P.J. Locke.
Final playoff call: IN. Denver takes the automatic berth as my AFC West champion.
What I have different from the consensus
From fourth place to first, the consensus order is Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. My order is Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.
The larger difference is how strongly I believe in the depth of this division. I have all three top teams reaching at least 10 wins, and I place Denver, Kansas City and Los Angeles in the AFC playoff field together.
Final division verdict
Denver wins the AFC West at 12 wins and 5 losses. Kansas City and the Chargers also make the playoffs. Las Vegas improves enough to deliver a few major upsets, but finishes fourth and misses the postseason.
Method and source
Consensus source: ESPN Preseason NFL Power Rankings 2026. ESPN published the ranking on August 31, 2026 and says its power panel includes more than a dozen NFL analysts. I used the leaguewide order only to create the division consensus. The records and playoff calls are Football Nation USA predictions. Additional offseason context comes from Football Nation USA’s 2026 team notes.
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