2026 NFC South Predictions: Final Rankings, Records and Playoff Calls
- Football Nation
- 4 hours ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 11 minutes ago
The NFC South creates my biggest disagreement with the consensus among these four divisions. ESPN’s preseason power panel, published August 31, 2026, places Tampa Bay first within the division, followed by Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta. My final schedule records tell a very different story behind the Buccaneers.
Continue the 2026 NFL projection series with 2026 AFC West predictions, 2026 NFC West predictions, and 2026 AFC South predictions.
Tampa Bay still wins the division in my projection, but no other NFC South team reaches my playoff field. New Orleans moves into second, Atlanta moves into third, and Carolina falls all the way to fourth. Both ranking sections below run from fourth place to first, saving the division winner for last.
Consensus ranking
4. Atlanta Falcons: No. 26 overall in ESPN’s panel.
3. New Orleans Saints: No. 25 overall in ESPN’s panel.
2. Carolina Panthers: No. 23 overall in ESPN’s panel.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: No. 18 overall in ESPN’s panel.
My final ranking, record and playoff call
4. Carolina Panthers: 5 wins and 12 losses. Playoffs: OUT. Fourth in the NFC South.
3. Atlanta Falcons: 6 wins and 11 losses. Playoffs: OUT. Third in the NFC South.
2. New Orleans Saints: 8 wins and 9 losses. Playoffs: OUT. Second in the NFC South.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9 wins and 8 losses. Playoffs: IN. NFC South champion.
The playoff picture
Only one NFC South team makes my playoffs. Tampa Bay wins the division and enters the postseason. New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina are all out.
4. Carolina Panthers: 5 wins and 12 losses
Carolina earns wins over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota and Atlanta in my schedule picks. The Panthers also endure long losing stretches and fall twice to New Orleans. Losses against Detroit, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Seattle keep Carolina near the bottom of the NFC. A Week 18 victory over Atlanta is not enough to avoid fourth place.
Offseason context: Bryce Young returns after career highs and Carolina added Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, but Brad Idzik is taking over play calling and the injuries are significant. Ikem Ekwonu remains on the physically unable to perform list and Nic Scourton is out for the season, helping explain why my projection is far lower than the consensus.
Final playoff call: OUT. Carolina finishes last in my NFC South and remains outside the postseason.
3. Atlanta Falcons: 6 wins and 11 losses
Atlanta falls to 2 wins and 8 losses before the bye, creating a hole that the late schedule cannot repair. My picks have the Falcons showing improvement with victories over Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. The season ends with a loss at Carolina, leaving Atlanta at 6 wins. The late division wins move the Falcons ahead of the Panthers in my final order.
Offseason context: No team in the division changed more than Atlanta, which installed Matt Ryan, Ian Cunningham and Kevin Stefanski as its new leadership group. The Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. quarterback competition carries major health risk, and Jalon Walker’s season ending ACL injury weakens the defense.
Final playoff call: OUT. Atlanta’s late improvement is not enough to enter the playoff race.
2. New Orleans Saints: 8 wins and 9 losses
New Orleans recovers from an 0 and 2 start and reaches 6 wins and 4 losses after beating Carolina and Chicago. The second half becomes more difficult. Losses to Cincinnati and Green Bay are followed by a win over Carolina, then defeats against Tampa Bay, Arizona and Atlanta. A final victory over Tampa Bay gets the Saints to 8 wins, but not above .500.
Offseason context: New Orleans committed to Tyler Shough after going 5 and 4 in his rookie starts, then added Travis Etienne Jr., Noah Fant and three drafted receivers. Alvin Kamara’s MCL sprain, Jordyn Tyson’s hamstring trouble, Dillon Radunz’s ACL tear and the departures of Demario Davis and Taysom Hill complicate the climb.
Final playoff call: OUT. New Orleans finishes second in the division but misses my final NFC playoff field.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9 wins and 8 losses
Tampa Bay reaches its bye at 5 wins and 4 losses. My picks then have the Buccaneers losing at Detroit before building the division winning stretch with victories over Carolina, the Chargers, Baltimore and New Orleans. Tampa Bay reaches 9 and 5, then closes with losses to Atlanta, the Rams and New Orleans. That difficult finish keeps the record modest, but 9 wins are still enough to lead my NFC South.
Offseason context: Baker Mayfield remains the centerpiece as Zac Robinson takes over the offense, but Tampa Bay must replace franchise legends Mike Evans and Lavonte David. Alex Anzalone, Christian Rozeboom, Al Quadin Muhammad and first round pick Rueben Bain Jr. headline a rebuilt defense that still gives the Buccaneers the division’s best overall case.
Final playoff call: IN. Tampa Bay takes the automatic berth as my division champion and is the NFC South’s only playoff team.
What I have different from the consensus
From fourth place to first, the consensus order is Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My order is Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
My biggest disagreement is Carolina. The consensus baseline places the Panthers second, but my schedule picks produce only 5 wins and drop them to fourth. I also move the Saints into second and the Falcons into third.
Final division verdict
Tampa Bay wins a close division at 9 wins and 8 losses and becomes the NFC South’s only playoff representative. New Orleans finishes one game behind but misses the postseason. Atlanta and Carolina remain in rebuilding seasons.
Method and source
Consensus source: ESPN Preseason NFL Power Rankings 2026. ESPN published the ranking on August 31, 2026 and says its power panel includes more than a dozen NFL analysts. I used the leaguewide order only to create the division consensus. The records and playoff calls are Football Nation USA predictions. Additional offseason context comes from Football Nation USA’s 2026 team notes.
Comments