Buccaneers vs. Bills Week 11 Preview: Odds, Matchup, and Predictions

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head back on the road in Week 11, facing the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, November 16, 2025. With both teams carrying identical 6-3 records, this matchup has significant implications for their playoff aspirations. Tampa Bay seeks its first-ever victory in Buffalo, while Buffalo looks to bounce back from a rare home loss and maintain its standing in the AFC East. This detailed preview breaks down the matchup, betting trends, key players, injury reports, and predictions for the upcoming game.

Buccaneers Aim for Breakthrough in Buffalo

Historically, the Buccaneers have found the Bills a tough opponent in Western New York, having played just three times there prior to this upcoming game, with Buffalo winning all three. Tampa Bay's last home win against Buffalo in 2023 has given the Bucs a lead in the overall series at 8-5, but road victories in Buffalo remain elusive. The Buccaneers' 6-3 record after their narrow 28-23 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 10 still keeps them ahead in the NFC South by 1.5 games. However, that defeat also highlighted some defensive struggles, as Tampa Bay was only able to sack Patriots quarterback Drake Maye once after a string of 15 sacks in the prior three games.

The Buccaneers face an AFC East foe once again—a division they are outside but closely contesting with. After their loss to New England, they must now overcome a Bills team with a strong home-field advantage where Buffalo stands 4-1, contrasting Tampa Bay’s impressive 4-1 road record this season. The Buccaneers’ depleted offensive weapons place extra pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield to perform, especially with key wide receivers like Chris Godwin sidelined. Consequently, the Bills’ secondary, featuring playmakers such as cornerback Tre’Davious White and safety Jordan Poyer, will be tasked with containing Tampa's passing attack by crowding intermediate routes and forcing Mayfield to beat them with precision passing.​

Buffalo’s Challenges and Strengths

Buffalo’s Week 10 was marred by a surprising and heavy 30-13 loss at home against the Miami Dolphins, a team that came in with a 3-7 record. The Bills struggled against the Dolphins' rushing attack, surrendering 197 rushing yards, including 174 to De’Von Achane, and allowed 7.0 yards per play on average. Despite MVP quarterback Josh Allen throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns, Buffalo’s offense was stalled for much of the game, as Miami held them scoreless until the fourth quarter. Allen was pressured heavily, resulting in an interception and three sacks.

The Bills defense, while generally strong against the pass, has been vulnerable against the run, allowing the most rushing yards per game in the league (153.2). This weakness may give Tampa Bay’s ground game an opportunity, although injuries to Buccaneers running backs like Bucky Irving challenge their rushing attack capacity. Buffalo's offensive balance, however, remains formidable, led by Allen’s arm and backed by a resilient running game spearheaded by James Cook III. Cook is emerging as a standout back with 920 yards on 166 carries but was limited to just 53 rushing yards last week, a rare down week after explosive performances against Carolina and Kansas City.​

Key Matchup and Players to Watch

The spotlight will be on James Cook III for the Bills, who has the speed and power to exploit Tampa Bay’s bottom-third-ranked run defense, which allows 100.8 rushing yards per game. Cook's ability to break off big runs will be vital, especially given how TreVeyon Henderson shredded the Buccaneers’ defense for 147 yards last week.

On the Buccaneers side, Baker Mayfield’s performance will be pivotal. Mayfield has been effective this season, recording 12 games with at least three touchdown passes since 2023, a number tied for first in the NFL. However, the Bills' pass rushers, including Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, will pressure him relentlessly in hopes of forcing turnovers. Mayfield's accuracy and decision-making under pressure could determine Tampa’s offensive success or failure.

Defensively, the Buccaneers rookies have made notable contributions this season. Players like Tykee Smith, who recorded an interception in a recent game, and Elijah Roberts, with two sacks, have added energy and impact from the backfield and pass rush. For the Bills, defensive adjustments following their stifling loss to Miami will be critical to contain Tampa Bay’s passing game.​

Betting Trends and Odds

The betting odds favor the Bills as home favorites (-5.5 spread, -245 moneyline), with the Buccaneers receiving +5.5 points and a +200 moneyline. The total points line is set around 49.5. The Buccaneers have a solid record against the spread (ATS) of 5-4 this season, particularly shining on the road with a 4-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the Bills hold a 4-5 ATS record and have struggled somewhat at home (2-3 ATS). The over-under trends differ: Buccaneers’ games lean slightly towards the over (5-4), and Bills’ games towards the under (5-4). These trends highlight the contrasting styles and strengths of each team, with Tampa favoring higher-scoring contests and Buffalo's defense sometimes limiting scoring at home.​

Prediction and Outlook

This Week 11 game is a critical crossroads for both teams in their pursuit of playoff positioning. Buffalo’s home dominance gives them an edge, but Tampa Bay’s road success cannot be overstated. The Bills’ balance of rushing and passing, combined with their home crowd, should help them secure a victory. However, Tampa Bay’s resilience and Mayfield’s passing could keep the game close. Expect a competitive and closely fought game, likely determined by key turnovers and defensive stands.

Predictions lean toward a Bills victory, 27-17, as they capitalize on Tampa’s offense weakening due to injuries and maintain pressure on Mayfield, while Cook’s rushing and the Bills defense return to form after last week’s letdown.​

Additional Historical Context

The Buccaneers' limited trips to Buffalo before the 2002 NFL divisional realignment explain why Tampa has only played three games there, losing all. Before the realignment, Tampa and Buffalo’s schedules prevented frequent meetings, especially road games. This rarity adds an additional narrative layer to the upcoming matchup, as Tampa Bay aims to break its Buffalo losing streak, an accomplishment that would be a key milestone for the franchise.