Ravens Super Bowl Chances 2026: Why Lamar Jackson’s Window Is Still Open
- Football Nation
- 5 days ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 3 days ago
The Baltimore Ravens’ Super Bowl window did not close when they missed the playoffs in 2025. It changed shape. Lamar Jackson is entering his age-29 season with a new head coach, a new offensive play-caller and a defense that made an expensive move to fix its clearest weakness.
That combination is why the Ravens Super Bowl chances in 2026 are back in the national conversation. First Things First argued this week that Baltimore’s window remains open, while the NFL’s player-voted Top 100 dropped Jackson from No. 2 to No. 69 after an injury-disrupted season. One debate sees a contender; the other reflects how far Jackson’s stock fell in twelve months.
Why Lamar Jackson’s 2025 season changed the conversation
Jackson’s 2025 numbers were not poor in isolation. The Ravens list him at 2,549 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 103.8 passer rating across 13 games. He added 349 rushing yards and two scores. The NFL notes that his passer rating still ranked fourth in the league.
The problem was availability and trajectory. Jackson missed four games while dealing with a hamstring injury and a late-season back contusion, and Baltimore finished 8-9 without a playoff berth. His rushing production fell to a career low, while his 36 sacks were his second-highest single-season total. A quarterback whose game has always stressed defenses in two dimensions did not consistently look like the same physical problem.
The player vote captured that frustration by ranking Jackson No. 69 in the 2026 Top 100, 67 places below his position a year earlier. That ranking is verified; the conclusion fans draw from it is opinion. It does not mean 68 players are objectively better than Jackson, and new Ravens coach Jesse Minter publicly rejected that idea.
Photo: Lamar Jackson stands on the Ravens sideline before Baltimore’s August 23, 2025 preseason game at Washington. All-Pro Reels / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
The strongest reason Baltimore’s window is still open
Jackson’s 2024 ceiling did not disappear. One season before the downturn, he completed 66.7% of his passes for 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions, producing a 119.6 passer rating. He also rushed for 915 yards. That was not distant history; it was the season immediately preceding his injury-marred 2025.
There is also a specific reason to believe the new offense can help. The NFL reported that Jackson led qualified quarterbacks in 2025 with a 147.6 passer rating on play-action passes. Doyle’s early installation has placed Jackson under center more often, creating opportunities for harder run fakes and more defined throws.
Baltimore’s official first training-camp report said Jackson completed 10 of 13 passes on July 29 and that all three incompletions touched a receiver’s hands. It also noted his increased under-center work. That is encouraging evidence from one practice—not proof that the offense is fixed. Training-camp completion totals should never be treated like regular-season results.
What Declan Doyle changes for Lamar Jackson
Doyle arrived after serving as Chicago’s offensive coordinator in 2025, when the Bears averaged 369.5 yards per game and ranked sixth in the NFL. Ben Johnson called Chicago’s plays, so Doyle’s first season in Baltimore is also his first as an NFL play-caller. That distinction matters: creative design and game-day sequencing are not the same job.
The Ravens have described Doyle’s system as physical, detailed and explosive. Jackson said during offseason work that the new coordinator’s involvement should make his job easier. The potential benefit is a structure that creates simpler completions and play-action opportunities instead of asking Jackson to rescue possessions after protection breaks down.
The risk is transition time. Jackson is learning his fourth NFL offense, and Doyle is making first-time decisions under live game pressure. Baltimore can be more versatile in September and still need months before the system is truly playoff-ready.
The defense may decide the Ravens’ Super Bowl chances
Minter’s most important idea is not about changing Jackson. It is about reducing how often Baltimore needs him to be Superman. The new coach said he wants a great defense around Jackson so the offense receives more possessions and can play with rhythm.
That was a real weakness in 2025. Baltimore’s official statistics show the defense allowed 6,027 yards and generated only 30 sacks, tied for the third-fewest in the league according to the team. The Ravens responded by signing Trey Hendrickson to a reported four-year deal with a $112 million base value and incentives that can push it to $120 million.
Hendrickson recorded 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024 before injuries limited him to seven games last season. His signing is a major attempt to fix the pass rush, but it also introduces another health variable. Baltimore needs his pressure to improve the defense without relying on one veteran to solve every third down.
Zay Flowers gives the offense contractual stability
Baltimore also secured Jackson’s top receiver. Football Nation’s analysis of the Zay Flowers contract extension explains why the reported four-year, $140 million agreement matters to the quarterback and the championship window.
Flowers produced 1,211 receiving yards in 2025, according to the Ravens’ team statistics. Keeping him gives Doyle an explosive primary target while the rest of the passing rotation develops. It also removes one major source of uncertainty from an offseason defined by coaching turnover.
The question is whether Baltimore can create enough reliable answers behind Flowers. A contender cannot allow one injury, one double-team plan or one difficult protection matchup to shrink the passing game in January.
Photo: Lamar Jackson watches warmups on the field before the Ravens’ August 23, 2025 preseason game at Washington. All-Pro Reels / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
The three questions that will settle the debate
First, can Jackson remain available for a full season? The difference between his 2024 and 2025 production begins with health, not reputation. Baltimore needs his movement skills, but it also needs an offense that does not require unnecessary exposure to hits.
Second, can Doyle turn under-center play action into efficient early-down offense? Jackson’s verified play-action numbers suggest a clear opportunity. Watch sack rate, first-down success and explosive completions—not just highlight scrambles.
Third, can Minter’s defense get off the field? The pass rush must rise significantly above the 30 sacks recorded in 2025, and the defense must stop allowing long possessions that reduce Jackson’s opportunities.
Baltimore’s late-2025 loss to Pittsburgh showed how narrow the margin can become in the AFC North. Football Nation’s Steelers–Ravens Week 14 breakdown provides context for the division pressure the rebuilt Ravens will face again.
Football Nation takeaway
The Ravens’ Super Bowl window is open because Jackson’s elite ceiling is recent, the offense is being redesigned around his strengths and Baltimore spent aggressively to repair its pass rush. That is a stronger foundation than the No. 69 ranking suggests.
But the window is not permanent or guaranteed. Jackson is 29, the new play-caller is unproven in that role, and the defense is attempting a one-year turnaround. Baltimore should be treated as a legitimate 2026 contender—not a finished championship team.
If Jackson stays healthy and Doyle converts the new structure into cleaner early-down offense, the Ravens can return to the AFC’s top tier quickly. If protection and defensive possession problems remain, the same Super Bowl debate will return next offseason with less time on the clock.
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